Astros vs Rangers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 4

Astros vs Rangers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 4 article feature image

Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman.

Astros vs. Rangers Odds

Monday, Sep 4
4:05 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Astros Odds
-115o / -105u
Rangers Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

J.P France (3.49 ERA, 116 IP) and the Houston Astros will take on Andrew Heaney (4.16 ERA, 127 and 2/3 IP) and the Texas Rangers in the first game of a crucial Lone Star series Monday at Globe Life Field.

The teams entered tied in the standings, and are each sitting just one game back of the Mariners in a highly competitive AL West race.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Houston Astros

Houston will look to continue its dominant offensive play in this critical series Monday. It has hit to a wRC+ of 129 over the last 30 days, and owns the top BB/K ratio in the league over that span at 0.52.

The Astros have been the second-most potent team in the league versus left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 125, which has come with a strikeout rate of just 18.5%.

At full strength, the Astros deserve to viewed as the second-best lineup in baseball versus lefties. Yordan Alvarez exited yesterday's contest at Yankee Stadium, but has been confirmed in today's lineup, hitting third as the DH.

France had been one of the luckiest starters in baseball early on this season based upon his middling underlying profile, and recently his actual earned run totals have started to take a downturn. France pitched to an ERA of 5.92 across 24 1/3 innings in August, and allowed a WHIP of 1.56 in those starts.

His xERA climbed to 4.64, and his xFIP comes in at 4.52 on the season. Over his last five outings, France's single game xFIP has averaged 4.56.

Texas Rangers

Despite a tough run of results, the Rangers offence has remained in solid form recently. They have hit to a wRC+ of 101 over the last 30 days, with the third-highest hard-hit rate in the league at 37.5%. They have been the fourth-most productive team in the league versus right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 120.

Texas has also hit to the fourth-best run-value in the league versus the fastball, and owns the fifth-best mark in the league versus the cutter. A matchup versus a righty in France featuring a lot of each should suit the Rangers' lineup overall, even if they did struggle on July 25th versus France.

Heaney enters this matchup in the midst of a strong run of results. He pitched to an ERA of 2.39 across 26 1/3 innings in August, and allowed a WHIP of 1.33 in those contests. In those 26 innings, he pitched to an xFIP of 4.42. His Stuff+ of 101 and Location+ of 100 suggest he is a league-average starter at this point.

Astros vs. Rangers

Betting Pick & Prediction

With Alvarez confirmed to be in the lineup, the Astros project as one of the very best against left-handed pitching. While Heaney had a dominant month of August, his underlying profile remains modest and he is not likely to pitch to the same kind of results moving forward.

Offensively, the Rangers continue to post stellar results even if that has not translated into many wins recently. Their shaky bullpen has not helped things, and that concern could also help this game get over the total of 9.5, particularly if the game does not warrant using any of their top arms early in a huge series.

In a matchup between two elite offenses with middling starting pitchers, this game will have every opportunity to break open and cash the over.

Anything better than -120 for this game to go over 9.5 is a play for me.

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