Astros vs Tigers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, August 25
Pictured: Andy Ibanez celebrates with Spencer Torkelson. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Astros vs. Tigers Odds
The Detroit Tigers have shown a spark lately, and get an opportunity to face a struggling Framber Valdez on Friday.
Matt Manning will start for Detroit, and although his peripherals don't jump off the page, his second-half numbers have been reasonable enough.
That said, going up against the Houston Astros is a tall task, even if they are having trouble with righties this month.
There's value on the Tigers in this game, so let's make a Tigers vs. Astros betting pick and prediction.
Valdez has a 3.55 ERA, but his xERA is 4.30. His Average Exit Velocity is 91.9 mph and he also boasts a 46.3% hard-hit rate and a 8.2% barrel rate. All three of these numbers have significantly skyrocketed since 2022. His second-half ERA is 6.18 over 43 2/3 innings, which includes a 4.71 ERA over 28 2/3 innings in August. Yes, his strikeout and walk numbers are still better than average, but this fall from grace is concerning.
Houston has seven bats with a xwOBA over .320 this month, which is one reason to avoid backing Manning. Collectively, the Astros have a 100 wRC+ with a 10.6% walk rate, a 20.9% strikeout rate and a .714 OPS.
In relief, the Astros have struggled this month. Only Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero have a xFIPs under 4.00, so if the Tigers force Valdez out of this game early, they'll have a chance to attack a weak bullpen.
Manning has a 4.31 ERA against a 5.62 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.8 mph with an 11.2% Barrel Rate and a 43.9% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate is less than 16% and his walk rate is 6.7%. Manning's second-half ERA is 4.79, which is better than Valdez, but not worth backing on the moneyline.
The Tigers have four bats with an xwOBA over .430 this month off lefties. Andy Ibáñez, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson have hammered left-handers and should do the same to Valdez. A weak bottom half of the lineup is why Detroit has an 80 wRC+ and a .637 OPS off lefties this month. That said, since August 14, Detroit has a 9.7% walk rate, a 125 wRC+ and a .791 OPS off of southpaws.
Spencer Torkelson with his 22nd HR of the season!! 🚀
Tigers lead 2-0!!
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 20, 2023
Now, the Tigers have a 4.57 xFIP this month with three arms below the 4.00 mark. Yes, no one is as dominant as Montero or Pressly, but they have options when Manning ultimately exits the game.
Astros vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither pitcher is worth betting on the moneyline, but all signs point toward these offenses being able to score. There's not much value on the total, but there is betting value in backing the Tigers to go over their team total. Detroit has been hitting well lately and, coupled with Valdez' struggles, should continue to do so on Friday.