Athletics vs Pirates Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on Wednesday’s Over/Under
Pictured: Brent Rooker. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
- The Oakland Athletics head east to Pennsylvania to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a Wednesday matinee matchup.
- Neither of these starters are in the Cy Young conversation, but this matchup could still be low scoring.
- D.J. James digs into the trends and offers up his best bet for A's vs. Pirates below.
Athletics vs Pirates Odds
The Oakland Athletics are doing anything possible to salvage what's left of a paltry rotation. Hogan Harris will start Wednesday’s matinee matchup with Roansy Contreras and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Contreras has struggled lately, but he has done well with lesser opponents, and the A’s certainly fit that description.
Pittsburgh cannot hit lefties, and Oakland cannot hit righties. Both starting pitchers are reasonable enough to assume this'll be a low-scoring game, especially with Pittsburgh’s bullpen. Take the under in A's vs. Pirates on Wednesday.
Harris wasn't necessarily a distinguished prospect for the A’s, but he was a third-round pick in 2018. In the minors this season, he posted a 3.77 ERA with 31 strikeouts over 31 innings. In three starts at the MLB level, his results haven't been the best. He owns a 6.97 ERA, but that's mainly due to a horrid first start, where he only logged one out against the Mets. Against the Marlins and Astros, he allowed only six combined hits and two earned runs over 10 innings. He should continue a similar trend with the Bucs.
Oakland’s hitting has been suspect. In the past month, the A's have an MLB-worst 59 wRC+ and .547 OPS with a 27.6% strikeout rate. On the season, only Ryan Noda has a xwOBA over .330 off of righties. The A's have a few other bats over .300, like Brent Rooker, Seth Brown and Carlos Pérez, but this lineup is brutal.
In relief, the A’s have a 4.72 xFIP over the past month. That puts them ahead of the Rays, Nationals and Reds. They have two relievers with a sub-4.00 xFIP, and Austin Pruitt is a touch above at 4.02. They have a few options with the ability to hold Pittsburgh in check.
Contreras had a decent start to the year, but has since fumbled. He has a 4.82 ERA against a 5.23 xERA, though he should be fine, even as an up-and-down starter, against Oakland's poor lineup.
Pittsburgh hasn't fared well off of lefties in the past month. The Pirates have an 87 wRC+, which ranks 25th in MLB. Their .673 OPS is nothing to write home about, either. They have four bats with an xwOBA over .330, but the rest of the lineup drops off significantly. Unless they produce at the top of the batting order, Hogan should put forth some reasonable results, as he did in his past two appearances.
The Pirates bullpen is probably the only facet of this game worth boasting about. They have a team xFIP of 4.28, ranking in the middle of the league. They have five arms below the 4.00 mark, and Colin Holderman and Dauri Moreta are below 3.00. Contreras should have a decent start, but the rest of these arms should shut down Oakland.
Athletics vs Pirates Betting Pick
The story in this matchup is that both teams can't hit lately.
Both starters have shown they are more than capable of holding their opponents in check, especially the first time they see them. Given that there are just enough relievers to cover the later innings, this game should go under the total.
Take it from 9 (-115), and play it to 8.5 (-120).
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