The Boston Red Sox (22-23) host the Atlanta Braves (22-22) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find our Braves vs Red Sox predictions for Friday night below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Predictions, Picks
- Braves vs Red Sox pick: Under 8
Our Braves vs Red Sox best bet for Friday is the game total to stay UNDER 8 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Red Sox Odds, Lines
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -110 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -110 |
Braves vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Chris Sale (ATL) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.97 / 3.22 | ERA /xERA | 1.93 / 3.37 |
| 2.91 / 3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 2.60 / 3.14 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 24.1% | K-BB% | 19.6% |
| 38% | GB% | 47.4% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 102 | Location+ | 92 |
Braves vs Red Sox Preview, Predictions
Braves-Red Sox Betting Preview
Coming off his NL Cy Young campaign, Braves ace Chris Sale struggled to start the 2025 season, posting a 6.17 ERA through his first five starts.
Since then, however, Sale has found some form as the left-hander enters Friday's game against the Braves with a 1.85 ERA and 32:6 K:BB ratio over his last four starts spanning 24 1/3 innings. He's logged two double-digit strikeout games (against the Rockies and Reds) over this stretch.
Despite the slow start to the season, Sale ranks second in K/9, fifth in FIP and eighth in xFIP. Notably, the Red Sox have the third-highest team strikeout rate in the American League this season (23.6%).
On the other side, Garrett Crochet has been everything the Red Sox hoped for — and more.
He enters Friday with the sixth-best AL ERA (1.93) and fourth-most strikeouts (65) among qualified AL starters. Crochet has allowed just four runs over his last three starts (19 innings).
This betting system targeting unders in games with high strikeout starting pitchers (home: 23%+, visitor: 27%+ K rates) — like we have here with Chris Sale and Garrett Crochet.
With fewer balls in play and more missed bats, these games trend under, especially in regular-season settings with moderately priced totals (8–100).
This model capitalizes on pitching dominance to limit run production.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline
We have no bet on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
We have no bet on either side of the run line.
Over/Under
Our best bet for this game is Under 8 runs.
