The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CLEG and MLB.TV.
The Guardians enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline, while the Orioles are +105 to pull off the upset. The over/under, meanwhile, comes in at 8.5 total runs.
Find my Orioles vs Guardians prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction
- Orioles vs. Guardians Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
My Guardians vs. Orioles best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Guardians Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -117o / -103u | +107 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -117o / -103u | -131 |
Orioles vs Guardians Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-194); Guardians -1.5 (+158)
Orioles vs Guardians Total: 8.5 (O -117 / U -103)
Orioles vs Guardians Moneyline: Orioles +107; Guardians -131
Orioles vs Guardians Best Bet: Under 8.5
Orioles vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
Orioles vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Wednesday's Orioles vs. Guardians game fits a historically profitable betting system in our BetLabs database.
Called "Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds," this system targets unders in regular-season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers with low strikeout rates and moderate WHIPs are on the mound in Games 3 or 4 of a series.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and winds remain neutral.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind and winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
This system boasts an all-time record of 478-325-39, good for a winning percentage of 59.5% and an ROI of 14%. In 2025, the record moves to 32-18-2 — a winning percentage of 64% with a 22% ROI.
Orioles vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
According to our Action Network PRO Report, this under has already seen two sharp moves.
Meanwhile, the public loves the over in this game. Ninety-four percent of bets have landed on the over here, giving us a great opportunity to fade the public.
With the system at play, along with the market happenings, we're going to back Zach Eflin and Slade Cecconi to get the job in this one and back both teams to go under the total.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
Moneyline
We don't have a bet on either side in this American League matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Like the moneyline, we're staying away from betting the run line here.
Over/Under
Our best bet for this game is for both teams to go under the total. This game fits a historically profitable betting system that has won at a 64% clip this season, so we'll back both pitchers to get the job done in this one.
