Blue Jays vs Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Should We Expect More Fireworks in Baltimore? (Tuesday, September 6)
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Bichette
- Tonight's Blue Jays-Orioles matchup is basically a coin-flip according to oddsmakers.
- Mitch White takes the mound for Toronto while Baltimore will send Kyle Bradish to the hill.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-110|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Blue Jays broke out with 15 runs from 25 hits combined in Monday’s doubleheader to start this crucial series, and now hold a 4.5-game lead over the Orioles in the AL wild-card race.
Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish has been masterful over his last two outings, allowing just four hits and zero earned in 15 innings, and he will be tasked with shutting down a hot Blue Jays offense Tuesday.
Toronto will hand the ball to Mike White, who has been shelled badly in each of his last two outings, allowing a combined 15 earned runs.
Can Bradish keep Toronto’s bats in check Tuesday and lead the O’s to an important victory?
Blue Jays Starting to Slug
The Blue Jays have quietly won 14 of 19 games, and as you would expect that has come with its high-powered offense trending into better form.
Toronto has hit to a team wRC+ of 110 since August 18, with the league’s lowest strikeout rate during that span of just 17.9%.
Surely the quality of recent opposition pitching has boosted those marks to an extent as the Jays have played Boston, Pittsburgh, the Angels and the Cubs over that stretch of play, but it does seem Toronto’s talented lineup is trending into a better place.
Bo Bichette had been one of Toronto’s key disappointments all season long, but has broken out at the plate with a 24 hits over his last 60 PAs (.400), including 12 RBI since Friday.
Bichette became the first American League shortstop ever to manage three homers and six hits in a single day Monday, and could certainly be somewhat of an X-factor with continued strong play moving forward.
Toronto has remained one of the most successful teams in the league against right-handed pitching this season after holding the league’s top marks a year ago, and that strength has certainly become known to Bradish.
Bradish has faced Toronto three times since June 13th, and has allowed an ERA of 7.25 with a WHIP of 1.97. Bradish was far from unlucky as well, as the Blue Jays held an xSLG of .398 and an xwOBA of .331.
White appeared due for some notable regression after his tear throughout June and July, and he has surely found it with some horrible results over his last two outings.
White has now pitched to an ERA of 7.04 during his tenure with the Blue Jays, and three of his five starts have been of the notably poor variety altogether.
White’s expected marks have not risen significantly over his period with Toronto, however, and his xERA of 4.03 and xFIP of 4.23 suggest he should still post middle-of-the-pack results moving forward.
White has also struggled to get deeper into ball games, with notably poor results facing an order for a third time in a contest, and likely won’t be counted on for more than five innings in this spot.
Toronto has played a ton of ball over the last week, but did manage to avoid taxing the top bullpen arms too much in Monday’s doubleheader with the massive offensive output.
Bradish Better For Baltimore
Baltimore’s wild-card hopes have taken a significant hit since Sunday, with its three-game losing streak coming at a bad time and against the wrong competition.
Bradish has been stellar over his last two outings, which has been by far the best stretch of the 25-year-old’s career and has lowered his overall ERA significantly.
Bradish still holds an xERA of 4.62 on the season, with a concerning WHIP of 1.47. He holds some above-average stuff to be sure, but continued dominance moving forward would obviously be surprising, and being a fastball/slider heavy righty versus this Jays team does offer a poor matchup.
The Orioles’ offense has continued to be far more effective than one might expect over the last 30 days, batting to a team wRC+ of 100.
With Gunnar Henderson in tow, the unit is certainly beginning to look more formidable, and even if their is sure to be some growing pains along the way for the Orioles’ talented young lineup, the group still offers a formidable challenge as of right now to opposition pitchers.
Blue Jays-Orioles Pick
We saw some notably high scoring contests in Monday’s series opening doubleheader, and I do not think we need to look for an entirely different script in this contest.
Baltimore could certainly put together a strong offensive day against White, and should they get into a favorable position early could face some of the Blue Jays’ softer middle-relievers, which will provide another easier matchup.
Toronto’s offense has absolutely terrorized Bradish this season, and even if Bradish is entering this one in the midst of some excellent play, this matchup should still bode well for the Jays.
I think backing some offence in this contest is the right angle, and at -108 I see value backing this game total to go over 8.5.
Pick: Over 8.5 -108 (Play to -120)