The Houston Astros host the Boston Red Sox on August 12, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Red Sox will look to respond Tuesday evening after having their losing skid extended to three games in Monday's series opener. Dustin May (4.93 ERA) will make his second start with Boston since being traded at the deadline and will be opposed by Spencer Arrighetti (7.43 ERA).
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Astros Prediction
- Red Sox vs Astros pick: Roman Anthony Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 (DraftKings, Play to +125)
My Red Sox vs Astros best bet is Roman Anthony over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Astros Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -108 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -187 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -112 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Astros Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Anthony Shining Bright
May labored through his Red Sox debut on Wednesday, as it took him 91 pitches to record only 11 outs while allowing three earned runs.
May went 648 days between MLB appearances after a freak incident in which he tore his esophagus. And since returning to action, he hasn't offered the same kind of electric stuff.
May held tremendous pitch metrics prior to his absence, but now he holds a more modest Stuff+ of 101 and Pitching+ of 96 so far this season. He has an xERA of 4.85 and an xFIP of 4.38.
In his last five appearances, May has a 5.75 ERA but holds a respectable 4.34 xFIP and a 15.3% strikeout minus walk rate.
Since July 1, the Red Sox hold the sixth-highest wRC+ in baseball versus right-handed pitching and also rank sixth in hard-hit rate.
Among batters with over 40 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching in that span, Roman Anthony ranks second in baseball with a wRC+ rating of 164. He's been living up to the hype in the early goings of his young career.
Since July 1, Anthony has batted .322 with a 63% hard-hit rate. He holds an OPS of .833 versus right-handed pitching this season and a batting average of .292. He's made soft contact just 7.9% of the time versus righties and holds a 22.5% line-drive rate.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Can Arrighetti Progress?
Arrighetti made his MLB return last Wednesday versus the Miami Marlins after being sidelined since April 5 with a fractured thumb. It was an outing to forget for the young righty, as he struggled with his command, allowing 11 hits and five earned runs across 3 2/3 innings of work.
Arrighetti showed plenty of promise at the tail end of last season. In his final 10 starts, he pitched to an ERA of 2.90 and an xFIP of 3.31. In a tiny sample of 13 1/3 innings this season, he holds an xFIP of 4.55 and a Stuff+ rating of 101 while being hard-hit 45.2% of the time.
The Astros hold a wRC+ of 102 over the last 30 days and rank 14th in weighted on-base average. They've been tough on righties of late, as since July 1, they rank 10th in baseball with a wRC+ of 110.
Yordan Alvarez is nearing a return. He took live batting practice over the weekend and could potentially provide a huge boost to an already strong lineup.
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
It'll be interesting to see how Arrighetti performs over his next few starts, as he has the potential to be a difference maker for an Astros team that's currently priced as the sixth favorite to win the World Series.
Arrighetti was excellent at the end of last season after a slow start to the year, but he's struggled in a small sample of work this year.
He'll be in a tough spot, as he looks to right the ship versus a Red Sox lineup that's been highly productive versus right-handed pitching of late.
Anthony holds great numbers versus righties, as well as strong underlying results, and could be poised to follow up his big performance in the series opener with another productive outing on Tuesday.
At a long number of +135, there looks to be value in backing Anthony to record over 1.5 total bases in this matchup. I would bet it down to +125.
Pick: Roman Anthony Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 (DraftKings, Play to +125)
Moneyline
There's no value in backing either side to win at the current prices.
Run Line (Spread)
There's no value in backing either team to cover the run line at the current prices.
Over/Under
The over will likely be a trendy play in this matchup, given that neither starter enters in good form. However, both could be capable of offering a higher level of play the rest of the way. My lean would still be with the over, but as of now, Arrighetti's starts feel fairly volatile.
