The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Boston Red Sox on August 1, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Dodgers are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +144 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Prediction
- Red Sox vs Dodgers Pick: Red Sox ML + Under 8
My Red Sox vs Dodgers best bet is on Boston to win and the game to record under 8 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +144 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -156 |
- Red Sox vs Dodgers moneyline: Red Sox +144, Dodgers -156
- Red Sox vs Dodgers over/under: 7.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Red Sox vs Dodgers spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+130), Red Sox +1.5 (-156)
Red Sox vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Payton Tolle | Stat | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 11-6 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.32 / 2.92 | ERA / xERA | 2.72 / 3.20 |
| 3.38 / 3.80 | FIP / xFIP | 3.31 / 3.34 |
| 19.5 | K-BB% | 18.7 |
| 36.7 | GB% | 47.9 |
| .273 | BABIP | .226 |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 98 | Location+ | 107 |
Red Sox vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Red Sox vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 0.6 lead on Payton Tolle in terms of ERA, the underlying numbers are much closer.
Tolle has a 19.5 K-BB% that's 0.8 points better than Yamamoto's 18.7%, and a 33.6 HardHit% that's 0.7 points better than Yamamoto's 34.3%.
Yamamoto's 3.52 SIERA is a bit ahead of Tolle's 3.60, but Tolle's 2.93 xERA is a bit ahead of Yamamoto's 3.21.
It's very close. I separate them by less than one-tenth of a run.
Tolle also puts the Dodgers in their worst split against LHP, though the projected Dodgers lineup's average 112 wRC+ against southpaws is still 15 points above the Red Sox' average 97 wRC+. The visiting projected lineup has been 19 points better over the last 30 days, though both lineups average the same home/road wRC+ (107).
Both defenses are good. Boston's a bit better on a team level and projecting for just 2 FRV more.
So far, this is all extremely close, giving the Dodgers small edges for offense and home field, and maybe even for Yamamoto.
When looking at last-30-day bullpen estimators, Boston has been the second-best unit in the league (2.84 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA), while the Dodgers have been the fifth-worst (5.18 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 4.09 SIERA).
Perhaps that's not entirely fair since the Dodgers just got Edwin Diaz back. BARTOLO gives the Dodgers a four-spot and 0.16-run wFIP edge.
Still, why are the Dodgers favored by so much? Reputation?
Regardless, I expect a well-pitched game on both sides, with scheduled umpire Doug Eddings (-3.6%) wiping out any park and weather boost. We're double dipping in L.A.
Picks:
- Red Sox ML (+144, 1u | Bet to +115)
- Under 8 (-112, 0.5u | Bet through 8)
