The Philadelphia Phillies host the Boston Red Sox on July 23, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Phillies are favored to complete a three-game sweep over the Red Sox on Wednesday when Lucas Giolito (3.59 ERA, 77 and 2/3 IP) takes on Jesus Luzardo (4.29 ERA, 47 IP) in the series finale.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction
- Red Sox vs Phillies picks: Over 8.5 Total Runs -120 (Bet365, Play to -130)
My Red Sox vs Phillies best bet is Over 8.5 Total Runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Phillies Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +133 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -163 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-164); Phillies -1.5 (+135)
Red Sox vs Phillies Total: 8.5 (O -112 / U -108)
Red Sox vs Phillies Moneyline: Red Sox +133; Phillies -163
Red Sox vs Phillies Best Bet: Over 8.5 Total Runs
Red Sox vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 55-41 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 3.59/5.06 | ERA /xERA | 4.29/3.71 |
| 3.68/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 2.87/3.22 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 19.4% |
| 35.9% | GB% | 42.8% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 102 | Location+ | 108 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Phillies Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Giolito Due For Regression
After missing the entire 2024 season after receiving an internal brace procedure to resolve an issue in his pitching elbow, Giolito has proven to be a solid pickup for the Red Sox, pitching to a 3.59 ERA and accruing 1.4 WAR across 14 starts. Giolito's underlying results are much less convincing, though, and he does appear to be due for some significant negative regression.
Giolito holds an xERA of 5.06 and has been hard-hit 44% of the time while generating ground balls just 36.9% of the time. His 9.6% Home Run to Fly Ball ratio is significantly better than any other season of his career and has played a huge role in his overachievement this season.
Giolito's Stuff+ rating of 92 and Pitching+ rating of 94 are both career-worst marks. He's allowed the highest zone contact rate of his career, while his strikeout rate has dropped to 21.9%.
The Red Sox have struggled to get anything going offensively in the first two games of this series in matchups against two Cy Young-level pitchers, Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez, but will have a strong opportunity to bounce back in a matchup versus Luzardo.
Boston ranks sixth in baseball with a wRC+ of 110 versus left-handed pitching this season, and third in weighted on-base average versus lefties. It holds the fourth-lowest soft contact rate versus LHP, and is at close to full-strength with Triston Casas being the only position player on the IL.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Home Field Favors Philadelphia
Luzardo started the season in spectacular form, pitching to an ERA of 1.73 throughout his initial six starts, but has struggled to find any consistency since that point and has had numerous blowup outings. Since May 1st, Luzardo has pitched to an ERA of 5.57 and allowed a batting average of .302 while being hard-hit 41% of the time.
In his last six starts, Luzardo holds a Stuff+ rating of 99 and a Pitching+ rating of 105. While those marks do suggest Luzardo is capable of offering above-average results, they are down relative to his entire season.
Philadelphia's lineup has produced slightly better than league average results versus right-handed pitching this season, entering this matchup with a wRC+ of 104 and an OPS of .731.
For a second consecutive season, the Phillies have been significantly more productive at Citizens Bank Park than they have been on the road. They have hit a sixth-ranked wRC+ 115 at home this season, compared to a mark of 93 on the road.
Over the last two seasons, Citizens Bank Park has played as the eighth most favorable stadium in baseball for run creation and the fourth most favorable for home runs.
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Considering the quality of these two offenses and the starting pitching matchup, a total of 8.5 looks low for a game taking place at Citizens Bank Park.
Giolito appears to have been one of the luckier starters in MLB this season and seems likely to fall off in the second half. His velocity has fallen off significantly, and his stuff does not grade out well. It's no surprise to see that batters have been able to stay on his stuff and generate plenty of hard contact.
It's hard to know what to expect out of Luzardo right now, as he's offered quite a mixed bag recently, and his better outings have still been dominant. However, he's still struggled more often than not for a fairly lengthy sample of play, and the Red Sox do provide a tough matchup.
At -120, there looks to be value backing the game to feature over 8.5 total runs, and I would bet it down to -130.
Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs -120 (Bet365, Play to -130)
Moneyline
The prices on sides in this game look fair, and I have no interest in betting either team.
Run Line (Spread)
The prices on sides in this game look fair, and I have no interest in betting either team.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting the over is my favorite play from this matchup.
Red Sox vs Phillies Parlay
- Jesus Luzardo Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Red Sox Moneyline
- Game Total Over 9.5 Runs
Parlay odds: +475 (Bet365)
This looks like a solid spot to sprinkle a small wager on a parlay targeting a blowup outing from Luzardo, who's been notably hit or miss aside from his excellent first month of the campaign.
Luzardo allowing more than two earned runs obviously correlates well with the Red Sox winning the game, but I'm not sold on the Sox chances of winning a lower-scoring affair with Giolito on the mound. Adding the additional leg of over 9.5 runs moves the parlay from +260 to +475, and at that number I'm happy to see if the Red Sox can do some damage against Luzardo and win a high scoring affair.
Red Sox vs Phillies Betting Trends
