The San Diego Padres host the Boston Red Sox on August 9, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Padres Prediction
- Red Sox vs Padres pick: Under 7.5 (-102)
My Red Sox vs Padres best bet is the Under with the best odds currently on BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Padres Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 -118o / -103u | +117 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -118o / -103u | -140 |
Red Sox vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.57 / 5.11 | ERA /xERA | 2.59 / 3.06 |
| 4.19 / 4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 3.23 / 3.64 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.02 |
| 13.8% | K-BB% | 20.9% |
| 35.7% | GB% | 38.3% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system targets unders in interleague (non-conference) games where both teams are winning clubs, and the market sets a modest total (7–10).
The setup leverages: Solid teams (49–100% win rate) facing unfamiliar lineups and pitchers. Later-season matchups (game 22+), when teams settle into pitching rhythms. Home teams favored (moneyline -260 to -110), suggesting stronger bullpens. Undervalued run suppression due to a lack of offensive familiarity.
The result: profitable unders in tighter, more disciplined matchups between quality teams with limited recent exposure to each other.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102, BetMGM)
