The Toronto Blue Jays (90-66) host the Boston Red Sox (85-71) on September 23, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays pick: Under 8
Our Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -105o / -115u | -165 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-4 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 3.46/5.00 | ERA /xERA | 3.38/3.69 |
| 4.17/4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 3.52/3.81 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.01 |
| 11.2% | K-BB% | 17.9% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 35.6% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays (-165) host the Boston Red Sox (+140) in Game 1 of a crucial three-game set on Tuesday night. The total is set at 8 runs, and with both teams in the thick of the playoff race, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring contest.
The Blue Jays already punched their ticket to October, clinching the American League’s first playoff berth with an 8-5 win over the Royals on Sunday. Toronto still has work to do, needing either one more win or a Boston loss to lock up the AL East. Meanwhile, the Red Sox enter with a magic number of five to clinch their own playoff spot.
The pitching matchup should keep runs in check. Lucas Giolito has been sharp against Toronto this season, posting a 2.08 ERA across two starts (13 innings, 3 ER allowed). Kevin Gausman counters for the Jays, and he was dominant in his last outing against Boston—8 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts at Fenway Park back in April.
On top of the strong arms, this game also fits Evan Abrams’ “Wind Whisper Unders” system. Since 2020, the model has flagged unders in games where wind blows in at moderate speeds and cooler temperatures dampen offense, while the betting market shows steady downward pressure on the total without overwhelming public support.
That combination—weather suppressing power, sharp action leaning under, and the public not fully on board—has made this angle quietly profitable over multiple seasons.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, bet365)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
