Braves vs Phillies Player Props | NLDS Game 3 Odds, Picks for Aaron Nola, More (Wednesday, October 11)
Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola
In what has likely been the best game so far this postseason, the Braves rallied from four runs down Monday to take Game 2 by a score of 5-4 and even the series.
Austin Riley was the hero with the go-ahead two-run home run in the eighth inning. Now, he gets a great matchup against a familiar foe in Aaron Nola.
However, Nola will be backed by a raucous home crowd at Citizens Bank Park. Phillies fans may ignite if Bryce Harper comes up with a timely clutch hit like he has been prone to do in the postseason. He also may have a little extra motivation.
Find player props and picks for Braves vs. Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS below.
Braves vs. Phillies Game 3 Player Props
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On Monday night, Riley began the game 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. However, that did not matter when he stepped up in the eighth inning and tomahawked a 3-2 slider over the left-field wall. Both strikeouts came against Zach Wheeler, and Riley has had mixed results against him in his career.
However, that is not the case when he faces Aaron Nola.
Against Nola, the Braves slugger is 21-for-54 (.389) with five doubles, five home runs, nine runs batted in and a 1.180 OPS. Riley has homered twice off Nola this season, with both dingers on May 25. Riley is always a threat to go deep as he had 37 home runs in the regular season, and he is +430 to hit a home run on Caesars.
Riley has a hit in each of the first two games in this series and in five of his last six games dating back to the regular season. He has cleared this line in four of those games with three multi-hit games and the aforementioned home run. Considering his strong track record against Nola, I like his chances of getting two total bases again on Wednesday.
While Riley has won his fair share of battles against Aaron Nola, he has also struck out 16 times against him and is not alone in the Braves lineup. Over the last two seasons, Nola has struck out at least five batters in each of his nine starts against the Braves.
We backed Nola against the Braves on September when the line was at 4.5 strikeouts — it did not make sense then and does not now.
In the playoffs, there is risk of starting pitchers getting pulled early, especially in a pivotal Game 3. However, Wheeler and Nola are the Phillies' starters who should go deep into the game. Wheeler went 6 2/3 innings on Monday and easily cashed his outs-recorded line. Nola's outs-recorded line is at 15.5 at +110, and he has pitched six innings in each of his last nine starts against the Braves.
While I do like him to record 16 or more outs, especially at plus odds, I believe there is more value on his strikeout total. Eight of the last 10 starters whom the Braves have faced have gone over their strikeouts prop. The best two starters of that group were Justin Steele and Wheeler. Steele had six strikeouts while Wheeler punched out 10 on Monday.
If we are getting six innings from Nola, five strikeouts is very feasible. He is averaging 7.4 strikeouts per start against the Braves over the last two years and has punched out eight in five of them. Nola is +630 for eight strikeouts on FanDuel, which is incredible value for a 55% hit rate.
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In last year's postseason, Bryce Harper hit .349 with six home runs, 13 runs batted in and a 1.160 OPS. This year, he has a hit in three of his four postseason games and is hitting .333 with a solo home run.
In an important home playoff game, I already was targeting Harper to show up in Game 3. Then, I saw that Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia mocked him following the game-ending double play on Monday night.
To be clear, I have no issue with what Arcia did–baseball should be fun, and let's not forget this is a bitter rivalry.
However, Harper is one of the most fiery and competitive players in the sport, so I am sure he will have an extra chip on his shoulder. That may result in a 450-foot homer into the upper deck of right field. Harper is +370 to hit a home run on Caesars.
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Now, Harper's total bases are +115 on DraftKings. While I like his bases as well, I am going with this combo because Harper has scored a run in each of his past four games while drawing four walks in the last three games. A single, walk and run scored gets Harper two hits + runs + runs batted in but only one total base.
Harper is 0-for-4 with a walk against Bryce Elder in his career. However, the young right-hander allowed four earned runs in each of his last three and six of his last 10 regular season starts. That includes a start against the Phillies in which he walked five batters in 3 2/3 innings on September 20th. This will also be Elder's first postseason start, and in that raucous environment, I see him struggling.
Harper has hit this line in three of his first four playoff games, and that trend will continue in Game 3.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
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