Pirates vs Brewers Prediction | MLB Odds & Moneyline Pick (4/25)

Freddy Peralta has picked up where he left off in the second half of 2023 by cementing himself as the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers' pitching staff. He will face off on Thursday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will start Mitch Keller, in the series finale of this NL Central battle.

Keller had a rougher go of it in the second half of 2023, and he has not really figured it out since. He is striking out fewer batters than 2023 and permitting harder contact.

Find my Pirates vs Brewers prediction and MLB moneyline pick for Thursday, April 25 below.

Peralta owns a 1.90 ERA against a 3.09 xERA. His Walk Rate is below 5%, and he has struck out over 36% of batters while maintaining a sub-88 MPH Average Exit Velocity. His Ground-ball Rate is below average, but he is one of the best pitchers in the National League and a significant reason why the Brewers could be atop the National League Central Division for much of 2024.

The Brewers have also torched right-handed pitchers. They have a 121 wRC+ with a .789 OPS, and their OPS is only second to the Braves. They have six batters eclipsing a .315 xwOBA and five above .320. Christian Yelich is on the Injured List, but much of this lineup still matches up well with Keller.

The Brewers relief staff has been elite for some time. They have a 3.71 xFIP with 90 innings pitched already. They boast five relief arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so since Peralta can usually pitch into the fifth inning while minimizing walks, he will reduce the strain on the Milwaukee relief staff.

Keller has a 4.80 ERA against a 4.67 xERA. Essentially, he is expected to be bad and has been. His Average Exit Velocity is almost 90 MPH with a Hard-hit Rate ranking in the 18th percentile. He is walking more hitters in 2024 than he has in the past and is striking out fewer. This never bodes well for a pitcher who could excel via Chase Rate.

The Pirates have a collective 82 wRC+ and .662 OPS off of righties. They have walked over 10% of the time, and they have six batters above a .310 xwOBA. That said, they do not face Peralta or a pitcher of his stature everyday.

This lineup strikes out relatively often when facing a righty, and since Peralta does not walk many, he eliminates a key feature of how this Pittsburgh lineup can be successful. The pitching matchup should be too overwhelming to be effective in this game.

Pittsburgh relievers have been good, but they have not been on the same tier as Milwaukee. The Bucs have a team xFIP below 4.00, and they have five arms below that mark. However, Keller yields hard contact and will have issues with walks. The Brewers do not walk all too much, but a combination of hard-hit balls and walks usually leads to a quick leash in which Keller could be the recipient.

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Peralta is totally undervalued on this line, and so is the Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers are a better team than the Pirates in nearly every facet of the game.

Being on the road may not loom large here, the Brewers have hit righties better, and Peralta has few, if any, weak spots. He could even throw seven innings here if he can lock the Pirates down. Take the Brewers in Pittsburgh in this game from -118 on the moneyline down to -140. The opening line is simply off.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline -118 (Bet to -140)