Brewers vs Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Bats at Coors Field (Wednesday, September 7)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Freeland
- The Rockies host the Brewers in a Wednesday afternoon matchup at Coors Field.
- The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound while the Brewers will counter with Eric Lauer.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Brewers vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||3:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The two teams will start lefties in Kyle Freeland for Colorado and Eric Lauer for Milwaukee on Wednesday. Lauer is the better of the two pitchers but not by much. He has a 4.18 xFIP on the season against Freeland’s 4.58 xFIP. Freeland allows harder contact on average (89.8 MPH), but Lauer ranks in the bottom-40% of the MLB, as well (88.9 MPH).
The difference here is the two lineups are comparable, even if the Brewers have an edge out of the bullpen. This happens when comparing most teams to the Rockies. Colorado actually does have a better lineup in the last month with a 95 wRC+ against the Brewers’ 86 wRC+.
This line should be more even, so back the Rockies at home as neither pitcher is particularly strong.
Lauer Looks to Set Up the Brewers’ Strong Bullpen
Lauer has been consistent this season. Bettors should give him that, but otherwise, his ERA has risen from a 2.70 ERA in the first half of the season to 3.64 after the All-Star Break.
Lauer does not necessarily dazzle. He will work five-to-seven innings on average. He did have an awful June with a 6.83 ERA, so he has taken a step back before, but the Rockies likely are not going to trounce him.
Instead, they will piece together solid plate appearances the entire game. They have six batters above a .325 xwOBA with a few others rounding out the batting order above .300. This means they have enough pieces to get the job done with about a league-average pitcher on the mound.
That said, the Rockies will seemingly need to get the job done with Lauer on the hill. Milwaukee has a 3.66 xFIP out of the bullpen over the last month of baseball, which ranks seventh in the MLB. But after diving in a little deeper, they do have only four arms below a 4.00 xFIP in that timeframe. Devin Williams has struggled a bit at 4.17, so there are a few opportunities for the Rockies to string together hits later in the game.
Rockies Have More Reliable Hitters Against Lefties
Freeland is worse than Lauer, but his 5.32 xERA doesn’t tell the entire story. Luckily for Rockies’ backers, Freeland improved his ERA from 4.96 in the first half to a 4.30 spot in the second half. He also walks fewer hitters than Lauer on average, so the Brewers will need to hit to get on base.
The Brewers do have seven hitters above a .320 xwOBA against lefties in the last month, but everyone else is below .300. If anything, this might give the advantage to the Rockies for having a few extra batters who are more reliable at the bottom of the order.
In the bullpen, the Rockies have five relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. This is more than the Brewers since August 7, so this is a shocking revelation. They might neutralize the Brewers’ best asset in this game, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Coors Field. The Rockies should have enough artillery on the back of Freeland when he exits.
The Rockies are not the better of these two teams, but given the circumstances with how close these lineups fare against lefties and how their bullpens have looked lately, Colorado has a shot to win this game.
Since they are underdogs, the Rockies have enough value to play down to +100 from the consensus market price of +120. Freeland should pitch deep to hand it over to the better relief options for Colorado to finish this game as the victor.
Pick: Colorado Rockies +120 (play to +100)