The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on September 19, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -139 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +115 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Reds Prediction
- Cubs vs Reds Pick: Cubs ML (-127)
My Cubs vs Reds best bet is on Chicago to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Cubs vs Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -140 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -139 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +118 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
- Cubs vs Reds moneyline: Cubs -139, Reds +115
- Cubs vs Reds over/under: 9.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Cubs vs Reds spread: Cubs -1.5 (+118), Reds +1.5 (-140)
Cubs vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| Matthew Boyd | Stat | Nick Lodolo |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.16 / 4.69 | ERA / xERA | 5.12 / 6.35 |
| 4.34 / 4.31 | FIP / xFIP | 5.75 / 4.85 |
| 11.4 | K-BB% | 8.5 |
| 41.7 | GB% | 41.7 |
| .280 | BABIP | .297 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 107 | Location+ | 90 |
Cubs vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Cubs vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
Matthew Boyd’s season went off the rails when he allowed nine home runs on 11 barrels (11.2%) with just a 3.9 K-BB% in five August starts.
While that accounts for 60% of the home runs he’s allowed this season, Boyd still allowed just a 35.7 HardHit% last month.
Since the calendar has turned to September, he’s only improved to an 11 K-BB% that aligns with his season rate (11.4%), but hasn’t allowed a home run or even a single barrel with a 34.5 HardHit%.
Overall, his 4.16 ERA is just below estimators ranging from a 4.31 xFIP and dERA to a 4.68 xERA, with that latter metric the only one reaching four and a half, and this includes pitch modeling.
We can feel pretty good about who he is, and that helps when facing a Cincinnati projected lineup with just two batters (JJ Bleday, Jose Trevino) below a 100 wRC+ and five batters above a .196 ISO against LHP. Yet, we also have to remember that they play in one of the most power-friendly parks in the league.
The Cubs are always a greater run prevention unit than the sum of their pitchers because of their league-best defense, projected for -66 FRV on Saturday.
Opposing Boyd, Nick Lodolo’s season never even got on the rails to start with. He has just four quality starts in 19 tries all year.
Lodolo’s 8.5 K-BB% is not only a career worst, but less than half his previous low, meaning that despite his 9.7% Barrels/BBE and 40.9 HardHit% remaining around his career rates, his season has been a disaster.
Unfortunately, his 5.12 ERA also aligns with more widely ranging indicators running from a 4.75 Bot ERA (92 Pitching+) to a 6.45 xERA. Those pitch modeling metrics are both bottom three on Saturday's board. Batters from either side of the plate sit between a .370 and .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
While the Cincinnati offense perks up against LHP, the Cubs are still better. Their projected nine for Saturday average a 105 wRC+ on the road, 129 wRC+ and .194 ISO v LHP and 142 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Nico Hoerner is the only batter below a 100 wRC+ in either of the latter two instances.
To make matters even more difficult, the projected defense for the Reds has accumulated -10 FRV, though that drops to three if Tyler Stephenson DHs and cedes catching duty to Trevino, as BARTOLO seems to project (because having it the other way would defeat the purpose of playing both).
As rough as Boyd’s August was and as unimpressive as his season numbers remain, I still have him between three-quarters of a run and a full run better than Lodolo right now.
As good as the Cincinnati offense has been, I still have them around a composite 20 points of wRC+ behind the Cubs.
The Cubs' defense is massively better than the Reds, and they even project to enjoy an 8 BRR (Baserunning Runs) edge here.
I didn’t include bullpen analysis yet because both have been terrible with bottom-three estimators over the last 30 days and BARTOLO ranking both bottom third of the league relief units.
The only question is whether to go full game or F5 on the Cubs. I have both rated similarly, but they are currently -127 (56%) on Novig, where I can monitor and trade out without penalty if things get dicey after Boyd exits and still have a shot if the Cubs are trailing after five.
If you’re using a more traditional sportsbook, I may opt for F5 (-135 at bet365 as of this writing).
Furthermore, I favored the over in this contest, but upon digging further realized it was only the Cubs’ portion of it.
If you don’t trust Boyd and prefer that, the best number (and only 4.5 I can currently find) resides at bet365 right now (-135), which I would play to -170.
One more thing to note, there does appear to be some rain risk in the early forecast, which is another reason to favor prediction markets for their trading flexibility.
Picks: Cubs ML (-127, 1.27u | Bet to -150)
