The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on September 19, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MARQ.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Reds Prediction
- Cubs vs Reds pick: Under 8.5 (-115 | Play to 8)
My Cubs vs Reds best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
Cubs vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.29 / 3.94 | ERA / xERA | 3.30 / 3.53 |
| 4.57 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86 / 3.77 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 4.8 | K-BB% | 5.3 |
| 29.3 | GB% | 42.3 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 108 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Cubs vs Reds Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Trust in Lodolo
The Reds somehow still have life in the NL Wild Card race. It’s not a lot, but it’s enough to make things interesting in the final week of the season.
I’d consider a 3.30 ERA year to be Nick Lodolo’s breakout campaign. He’s started 26 games and has a career-high 144 and 2/3 innings under his belt. Plus, Lodolo's 3.53 xERA and 3.86 FIP prove that it's more than luck leading to his breakout season. The biggest change for him is commanding the zone and cutting his walk rate to 1.62 per nine.
Lodolo missed about three weeks with an injury in August and allowed 4+ runs in two of his three outings, while posting a scoreless five innings in the other. He gave up four runs in four and 2/3 innings versus the Dodgers in LA. No shame in that. The other poor outing came because he allowed five earned runs and three homers against the Athletics in Sacramento.
I'm willing to excuse the start vs. the A's a bit. That's a minor-league ballpark with dreadful dimensions. If he's able to generate swings and misses while holding his walk rate in place, he could dominate today.
The Reds would much prefer a low-scoring game, as their offense is nothing special. They rank outside the top-20 in wRC+ over the past three weeks.
Elly De La Cruz is the one hitter who could boost the Reds offense, but he's now hitting seventh in the order due to his severe struggles. He's much worse against left-handed pitching in general, posting a .606 OPS compared to .836 against right-handers.
Cincinnati will opt for a very right-handed heavy lineup here. When the Reds faced Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore this week, they went with TJ Friedl at the top, a lefty leadoff, followed by seven right-handers and one switch-hitter.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Inconsistent Offense of Late
Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Cubs, and he's struggled a bit lately. Seldom does Imanaga have a proper blow-up outing, but he's allowed three runs in four consecutive outings. In what figures to be a fairly low-scoring game, Imanaga needs to keep his run total to three or fewer for this total to remain under.
An extreme fly-ball pitcher, Imanaga has a 4.57 FIP compared to his 3.29 ERA due to his home-run issues. The Great American Ballpark is known for being hitter-friendly, which could pose problems for Imanaga and his 1.75 HR/9. On the flip side, the Reds offense being lean in the power department could outweigh the potential issues the ballpark would give him.
Imanaga is a pretty reliable arm. He goes deep into games, is a strike-thrower, but gets hit hard and allows homers. It just depends on what the game script looks like. If it's a high-scoring game, Imanaga could allow a solo shot or two without affecting the Cubs' chances of winning too much.
The Cubs destroyed the Pirates staff, including the NL CY Young frontrunner, Paul Skenes. But after clinching a playoff spot on Wednesday, it took the Cubs seven and 1/3 innings to get one hit versus Reds fireballer, Hunter Greene, who tossed a complete game shutout.
They rank 12th in wRC+ since August 25th, but Kyle Tucker's posting a wRC+ better than 200 plays a role in that number, and he's hurt. Two of the hitters who destroyed the Pirates — Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong are both hitting below .200 against left-handed pitching.
Now, Busch is likely to sit, which puts Carlos Santana in the lineup. The issue is Santana is 0-14 in his brief Cubs tenure. And Justin Turner, who hits lefties well, will likely DH.
Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the under here. I trust both pitchers in this matchup, as Lodolo could hold down an inconsistent offense, and Imanaga could blank the Reds if he keeps the ball in the yard.
I foresee a bit of a pitchers' duel on Friday evening in Cincy.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, bet365 | Play to 8)
Moneyline
I have no play here.
Run Line (Spread)
Not interested in the run line for this game.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I like the under here.
Cubs vs Reds Betting Trends
