The Cleveland Guardians host the Cincinnati Reds on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Guardians are favored by -185 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +154 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Reds vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Guardians Prediction
- Reds vs Guardians Pick: Chris Paddack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Our Reds vs Guardians best bet is on Chris Paddack to record three or fewer strikeouts today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Guardians Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -115o / -105u | -185 |
- Reds vs Guardians moneyline: Reds +154, Guardians -185
- Reds vs Guardians over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Reds vs Guardians spread: Reds +1.5 (-140), Guardians -1.5 (+118)
Reds vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chris Paddack (CIN) | Stat | LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 7.63 /4.32 | ERA / xERA | 2.98 / 3.84 |
| 4.96 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 4.11 / 4.23 |
| 11.6 | K-BB% | 11.2 |
| 39.3 | GB% | 44.8 |
| .343 | BABIP | .289 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 111 | Location+ | 91 |
Reds vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Reds SP Chris Paddack for 2.4 strikeouts in today's matchup against the Guardians, giving us an excellent 17% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 3.5, which is good enough to tag mark the under with an A- grade in our system.
Paddack has gone under this line in his last two starts, with just one strikeout in each of those games.
He hasn't lasted five innings in all but one outing this season, and will face a Guardians offense that ranks 13th with a 96 wRC+ in the last 14 days.
Paddack has been hammered by left and right-handed hitters alike (.301/.317 AVG). He also holds a 7.63 ERA and a .343 BABIP.
Let's fade him today on his strikeouts line against Cleveland.
Pick: Chris Paddack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160, BetMGM)
