Cubs vs Blue Jays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, August 11

Cubs vs Blue Jays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, August 11 article feature image

Via Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of Toronto Blue Jays runs to the dugout before playing the Baltimore Orioles in their MLB game at the Rogers Centre on August 2, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays Odds

Friday, August 11
7:07 p.m. ET
Apple TV+
Cubs Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-114/ -106
Blue Jays Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-114 / -106
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Apple TV's Game of the Week will feature an intriguing showdown between potential Wild Card teams. Javier Assad (3.35 ERA, 53 and 2/3 IP) will open for the Chicago Cubs, while Jose Berrios (3.38 ERA, 136 IP) will start for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Cubs vs. Blue Jays on Friday, August 11.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs claimed a victory over the Braves last Saturday with Javier Assad leading into a bullpen day, and they will hope for a similar result Friday.

Assad has thrown to a 4.64 xERA with a 4.55 xFIP this season along with a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Location+ of 97. Opponents own a Whiff Rate of just 20% against Assad this season, which is the sixth-lowest mark in MLB. His K:BB ratio of 1.7 is the third-lowest in baseball.

With the Cubs coming off an off day yesterday, the majority of their middle relievers should be available, and we will likely see some combination of Jose Cuas, Michael Fulmer, an Adbert Alzolay after 2-4 innings from Assad.

Offensively, the Cubs continue to dominate, as they pace the league in runs scored since the All-Star break. Over the last 30 days, the Cubs have a 134 wRC+ and a .370 wOBA. They own a BB/K of 0.42 during that time and have hit to soft contact 14% of the time.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Berrios' resurgence has been a key to the Jays' success in a year when the offense has not popped as expected. Most underlying indicators do suggest Berrios will regress from his current ERA of 3.38, and he should trend closer to league-average results moving forward.

He has pitched to a 4.58 xERA, with a 4.19 xFIP. He is in the 26th percentile in terms of xBA at .258 and has allowed a 35.8% Hard-hit Rate. His current 78% Strand Rate would finish as the highest mark posted in any season of his career thus far. He also has a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Location+ of 103.

Toronto continues to struggle to get baserunners on, but the rest of its process continues to look solid. Over the last 30 days, the Jays have hit to a 116 wRC+, with a BB/K of 0.42 during that time.

Alejandro Kirk and George Springer's early struggles were major factors in the Jays' underwhelming offensive start to the season. However, each has been in excellent form of late, and they offer windows to help cover the loss of Bo Bichette.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Cubs lineup has been tremendous since the All-Star break, and they will pose a challenge in this matchup for Berrios, who seems likely to regress soon.

The Jays' tremendous offensive talent dictates that their hitting should trend toward the league's upper third, and they would already be there with league-average results with RISP. Navigating the Jays' order with an opener in Assad followed by middle-of-the-pack bullpen arms could prove tough.

This could be a good time to buy low on Toronto's offense and sell high on Jose Berrios. This Apple TV+ game of the week could feature offensive fireworks, and I see anything better than -110 for over nine runs as worthy of a bet.
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