Cubs vs Braves Predictions Monday | MLB Odds, Expert Pick

Monday, May 13

7:20 p.m. ET

MARQ

Chicago Cubs Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -175	8 -102o / -118u	+120

Atlanta Braves Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 +145	8 -102o / -118u	-142

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The latest Cubs vs Braves odds for Monday's contest at Truist Park have the Braves listed as -142 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8 (-102o / -118u). For my Cubs vs Braves pick, I will be looking at the total.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Cubs vs Braves prediction for Monday.

Chicago Cubs

Left-hander Shōta Imanaga takes the mound for Chicago on Monday, and he should be a great candidate to back. Through seven starts in his inaugural MLB season, Imanaga is 5-0 with a commanding 1.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP.

There were eight or fewer total runs scored in six of those seven outings. Based on his underlying metrics, regression should not be a concern, as the left-hander ranks in the 94th percentile in xERA and 80th percentile in xBA.

However, run support could be an issue for Imanaga considering the Cubs are slated to go against right-hander Reynaldo López. While it is a small sample size, Chicago's current lineup possesses a fade-worthy .143 BA, .214 SLG and .208 wOBA through 17 career plate appearances against López.

Atlanta Braves

Like Imanaga, López has been tremendous to start this campaign. Through six starts, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

There were eight or fewer total runs scored in five of those six games. Also like Imanaga, López should not worry too much about regression, as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.

This success is likely to continue against Chicago, a team he is 2-0 against over the past five meetings with a flawless 0.00 ERA and 0.21 WHIP.

Following López is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Entering this matchup, Atlanta's relief pitching ranks in the top 10 in ERA and xFIP. With that said, this pitching staff may not get a ton of run support, as not a single Braves batter has faced Imanaga prior to Monday, and it will likely take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.

Cubs vs. Braves

Betting Pick & Prediction

The only reason this total is at 8 instead of 7.5 or even 7 is that both lineups are more than capable of putting up crooked numbers. However, in a Imanaga/López pitching matchup, I find that outcome unlikely.

Both starting pitchers have been nearly flawless this season, while both bullpens are good enough to avoid a late-game meltdown. Again, both lineups are extremely dangerous, but I think a total of eight in this pitching matchup is an over-adjustment to that fact.

Pick: Under 8 (-115 at FanDuel | Play to -120)

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