Cubs vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Sunday, April 30
Via Bob Kupbens/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago Cubs Pitcher Justin Steele (35) throws a pitch during the Major League Baseball MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics on April 19, 2023 at RingCentral Coliseum in Oakland, CA.
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -154 | 8 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +114 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 8 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -137 |
To kick off Sunday's MLB slate, the NL East's Miami Marlins host the NL Central's Chicago Cubs.
After dropping each of the first two matchups of this three-game series, Chicago looks to end the series on a high note before traveling to the nation's capital for a four-game set against the Nationals.
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Cubs vs. Marlins betting pick.
Chicago Cubs
Left-hander Justin Steele is slated to take the mound for the Chicago Cubs, and he enters with momentum. Putting together a breakout campaign to start his third season in the league, Steele is 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through his first five starts.
Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for the 27-year-old lefty. This year, Steele ranks in the 76th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Hist ability to retire hitters via the strikeout has been a key factor in this early success, as he has recorded at least five Ks in four of his five starts. Currently, Steele ranks in the 54th percentile or higher in K% and Whiff%.
In fact, he has posted a K% north of 23% in each of his first three seasons. Steele primarily relies on his four-seam fastball to set up his nasty slider, a pitch that boasts a 32.9% Whiff% this year.
Miami Marlins
Riding a three-game win streak, the Miami Marlins look to keep things rolling in this matchup. While Miami has looked solid this season, it is still a solid club to fade in the strikeout department.
When facing left-handed pitching this season, the Marlins rank 20th in the league in K%. In fact, this was one of the most profitable spots to fade the Marlins last season as they finished 2022 ranked last in the MLB in K% against lefties.
Looking at Sunday's projected lineup, the punch-out is likely to be an issue once again as seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 23% this year. Simply put, outside of Luis Arraez, this is a lineup that has over-performed through the first month of the season and is due for regression.
Cubs vs. Marlins Betting Pick
Miami's struggles striking out at the plate are likely to continue against Steele. While it is certainly a small sample size, this current Marlins roster possesses a 20% K% and 30.4% Whiff% across 15 career plate appearances against the left-hander.
In his lone start against Miami, Steele accumulated a whopping 10 strikeouts across 4.2 innings pitched en route to a 3-2 Cubs victory over the Marlins last season. At a mere 5.5 total, take the over on Steele's strikeout prop in Sunday's final contest of this three-game series.
Pick: Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
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