Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+154 | 10.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -114 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -184 | 10.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 -105 |
The Diamondbacks have lost four consecutive games and eight of their last 10, and they'll now look to turn things around in a three-game set against the league-leading Braves.
Arizona's slide has allowed the Dodgers and Giants to leapfrog it in the NL West standings.
With Zach Davies (6.37 ERA, 53.2 IP) matching up against Bryce Elder (2.97 ERA, 106 IP) on Tuesday, the Diamondbacks are heavy +165 underdogs to stop the bleeding.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Offensively, Arizona enters this matchup suffering through the worst patch of the season thus far with a wRC+ of 89, and a wOBA of .307.
Their steady process at the plate still looks strong with the sixth-best BB/K mark of 0.45, but they have the seventh-lowest BABIP over the last month.
In 2,601 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks own a wRC+ of 104 and have struck out just 20% of the time, which is the third-lowest mark in baseball. Their lineup should be at full strength Tuesday and will provide a stiff test for Atlanta's Elder.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could be a player to watch in this matchup. Gurriel struggled to click into gear after returning from a groin injury and put up horrific numbers at the plate in June.
The rest associated with the All-Star break came at a good time, as he has put up six hits in 13 at-bats since and now owns a .463 SLG rate in July. He has missed on just 17% of pitches this season, which is the eighth-best mark in the league.
Gurriel owns a .291 average against breaking pitches from right-handed pitchers since the 2021 season. Elder has thrown his slider 37% of the time this season, which is the seventh-highest among qualified starters. While his average comes down in righty-righty splits, his SLG rate is actually higher than it is against lefties at .496 across 234 ABs.
He has slugged .525 against sinkers and .541 against sliders this season.
Atlanta Braves
For two seasons in a row now, Elder has drastically overperformed expectations in terms of xERA, while elements of his groundball game could be slightly underrated by Statcast. He owns a groundball rate of 54.8% this season, which is up from his 2022 clip of 49.3%.
Even still, his hard-hit rate has risen to 41.7% and his strikeout percentage is down to 18.4%. Elder's Stuff+ rating comes in at 75 and his Location+ mark sits at just 99. Nothing about that profile screams sub-three ERA.
To this point, right-handed batters own better marks against Elder than lefties. In 53 innings against righties, Elder has allowed a .250 BA and .365 SLG rate.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Betting Pick
This is a spot in which I'm closer to betting the Diamondbacks than the Braves, but the current prices on each side are fair.
Fading Elder in some fashion is still appealing, and my favorite way to do that is actually with Gurriel. Gurriel has proven over a large sample to be one of the best batters in the league versus right-handed breaking pitches.
He enters this matchup in excellent form and gets a matchup against an overvalued righty. He has been extremely boom-or-bust in terms of hitting for power versus righties, which makes me like a sprinkle on a home run at +625, as well as a full wager on over 1.5 bases at +100.
Pick: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) |
