Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Wrong Team Is Favored (Saturday, May 21)

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Wrong Team Is Favored (Saturday, May 21) article feature image

Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner (Diamondbacks)

  • After winning the first two matchups of the series, the Diamondbacks take on the Cubs in the third game of their four-game set from Wrigley Field.
  • Madison Bumgarner gets the start for the D-Backs, and he's been a surprise this season.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the duel and offers up his best bet.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds

Diamondbacks Odds+126
Cubs Odds-148
Time2:20 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a wacky and windy 10-6 victory over the Chicago Cubs on Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks look to continue their winning ways in the Windy City on Saturday.

The Diamondbacks were playing well for a stretch, but have gone 3-7 over their last 10 games. They seem to be getting right in Chicago, though.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

The weather should not be a factor like it was in Friday afternoon's high-scoring affair. That should help make this game a little easier to read.

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How Will Bumgarner Pitch for Arizona?

Madison Bumgarner gets the start in this one, and he's had an odd season thus far. Bumgarner has been playing with fire all year and somehow has managed to not get burned through eight starts.

He has an aesthetically pleasing 2.29 ERA, but a 4.57 FIP and an 5.19 xFIP. He's been due to regress pretty much all season, and he simply hasn't done that.

On the road, Bumgarner has been consistent, as he has a sparkling 2.81 ERA over 16 road innings with a 5.04 FIP.

On the other side of the ball, the Diamondbacks' offense has been quietly solid on the road against left-handed pitchers. They have a team 102 wRC+ over the past few weeks, which is good for sixth in MLB.

Can Cubs' Offense Snap Out of Funk?

The Cubs send Justin Steele to the mound. He's had some pretty respectable looking numbers this season, however, he's had some pretty stark home/road splits in 2022.

Since his season debut where he fired five shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, Steele has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in any of his subsequent home starts. Additionally, he has a 5.52 ERA and a 4.53 FIP at home so far this season — that includes that Milwaukee start.

The Cubs' offense has also struggled of late. Over the past three weeks, the Cubs are 22nd in team wRC+ (95) at home against lefties.

There isn't a huge sample here, but considering their overall struggles and Bumgarner's luck, who knows?

Diamondbacks-Cubs Pick

Somehow, the Cubs are still heavy favorites in this matchup, and the Diamondbacks moneyline is sitting around +125 at most books. This almost feels like a trap.

The statistics and team records give an edge to the Diamondbacks. The fact that a matchup that seems like a coin flip has such surprising odds makes me feel like they are daring us to back Arizona.

As long as the Diamondbacks moneyline is in plus money, I'm taking that all day. It may be a trap, but I don't care about my safety. Tell my cat I love her.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML +130

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