MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Offenses Should Thrive in Afternoon Finale (Wednesday, May 18)

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Offenses Should Thrive in Afternoon Finale (Wednesday, May 18) article feature image

Meg Oliphant/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddie Freeman.

  • The Dodgers are an overwhelming favorite to complete a sweep of the Diamondbacks.
  • Walker Buehler will start at home against Zach Davies in the finale.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds

Diamondbacks Odds+240
Dodgers Odds-300
Over/Under8.5 (-110 / -110)
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Arizona Diamondbacks look to avoid a four-game sweep on Wednesday afternoon against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They're also looking to avoid losing their sixth straight game after recently reaching a .500 record.

The Dodgers entered this series having dropped their last two sets to the Pirates and the Phillies. It looks like all they needed to right the ship was a familiar division rival.

Walker Buehler will face off against Zach Davies in the finale before both clubs hit the road.

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Davies Due For Road Regression

The Diamondbacks have been a great story so far this season. They have pitched their way to respectability, and their offense experienced some positive regression in May.

However, they are still an average team overall. For as good as their pitching is, their offense will probably continue to be inconsistent and that is why they are going to continually hover around the .500 mark all season.

Zach Davies gets the start for the D'backs, having really benefited from a change of scenery and a partnership with Brent Strom. Davies has posted a 3.57 ERA this season and a 3.89 FIP over seven starts this year.

Unfortunately, Davies is much more vulnerable on the road. His 3.77 ERA away from Chase Field looks fine, but a 5.12 FIP is no good.

On the other side of the ball, the D'backs offense has been performing pretty adequately on the road. They have a 102 team wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching over the past few weeks, but that's only 14th in MLB.

Can Buehler Get Going at Home?

Adequate offense may not be enough against the Dodgers.

It's not that the Dodgers are statistically that much better than the Diamondbacks in this match up, but because Los Angeles just seems to have Arizona's number — at least at home.

Walker Buehler has had a rough time so far at home this season. He has consistently been a dominant home pitcher, but for whatever reason he just can't seem to get it together on his home field. In four home starts in 2022, he's posted a 4.35 ERA and a 4.65 FIP.

The Dodgers bullpen has also been pretty leaky over the past couple weeks. It's a bottom-third unit in FIP over that time span, which is incredibly uncharacteristic.

Additionally, the Los Angeles offense has posted a 118 team wRC+ over the past few weeks at home against right-handed pitching, which is good, but not great.

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Diamondbacks-Dodgers Pick

Considering Buehler's perceived vulnerability at home and Davies' vulnerability on the road, the over of 7.5 or 8 seems pretty achievable. Both offenses are good enough to reach that mark and considering the moneyline odds and the runline odds, the best value may be on the over.

It's hard to throw support behind the Diamondbacks when they're moneyline is in the +220 to +230 range, but Dodgers -1.5 runs for 130 doesn't seem like a great deal . Split the difference and take the over 8 up to -120.

Pick: Over 8 (play to -120)

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