Diamondbacks vs Reds Odds & Prediction: Thursday Moneyline Pick

Diamondbacks vs Reds odds for Thursday have the Reds listed as -130 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5. For my Diamondbacks vs Reds prediction, I'm backing the Cincinnati moneyline as I expect them to snap its seven-game losing streak.

Hunter Greene has been everything the Cincinnati Reds had hoped for when he was a rookie. He has been limiting hard contact while fanning an exceptional number of batters. His ground-ball rate and walk rate are below average, but everything else is coming together because of how well he throws his fastball.

His opponent Thursday will be the Diamondbacks, with Slade Cecconi taking the bump for Arizona. He was not the highly touted prospect that Greene was, but he prevents walks and does not give up hard contact.

Neither team has excelled in relief or against righties, so backing the better starter in Greene looks like the right move. But let's take a closer look in my Diamondbacks vs Reds betting preview.

Cecconi owns a 4.94 ERA and 2.34 xERA. Simply put, he is due for a break. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are above average, along with his strikeout rate, while his walk rate is exceptional (below 5%). The San Diego Padres torched him for six earned runs in his last appearance, but he was rock solid before that.

The D-backs also have some crucial injuries to their hitters, with Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo on the Injured List. Those were two of Arizona’s best hitters off righties. Otherwise, the D-backs have only Christian Walker and Joc Pederson above a .320 xwOBA off righties, which will not get the job done against Greene.

Arizona's relief staff has been a bit better than Cincinnati's. They have not struck many out collectively (18.6%), and they do walk over 10% of batters, similar to the Reds. That said, they activated Paul Sewald and have several other relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. That said, Cecconi could leave the game sooner than Greene and nullify the bullpen edge.

Greene holds a 3.12 ERA against a 2.42 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.4 MPH and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 75th percentile. He has one of the best fastballs in Major League Baseball. Yes, his walk rate is only a touch under 10% and his ground-ball rate is slightly below average too, but this D-Backs' lineup is struggling at the moment and should continue to do so here.

The Reds are not crushing right-handed pitching either. They have a 79 wRC+ and strikeout rate over 28% against righties. Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India are the only ones above a .330 xwOBA. However, the top of the order can get to Cecconi and the D-backs’ relief staff early.

The Reds have a team xFIP of 4.31 with a 24.3% strikeout rate but a walk rate over 10%. Emilio Pagán, Fernando Cruz and Nick Martinez are the only relievers under the 4.00 mark. Greene, however, has gone six-plus innings four times this year already, so he can reduce the strain on the bullpen and permit the Reds to only use their lethal weapons in the bullpen.

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The Reds and Diamondbacks are not having a good time at the dish right now. Cincinnati has a few extra batters who can hit Cecconi, and Greene should pitch deeper into this game to hand it to the only reliable part of the Reds' relief staff. Look for Greene to rack up the strikeouts and continue his dominance.

Take the Reds in this one at home from -118 to -135. Greene deserves some more respect from the market.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (-118 via FanDuel | Play to -135)