Dodgers vs Nationals Odds | MLB Pick Today

The Dodgers have successfully recovered from a little blip on the radar by taking three straight games heading into Thursday's series finale against the Nationals. Los Angeles will aim for the sweep on Thursday behind righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Can Yamamoto recover from a slight stumble to get back on track, or will MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals get the better of him in this duel?

Find my Dodgers vs. Nationals pick and MLB predictions below.

The Dodgers just recently snapped a cold spell where they lost seven of nine games, but it wasn't necessarily for lack of offense. They rank sixth in wRC+ over the past two weeks as they continue to sport a gaudy Walk Rate and are striking out in an impressive 18.7% of plate appearances.

The starting staff has taken a bit of a step back with a middling 3.81 ERA during this time, something that's been accentuated by the struggles of the two-newest Dodgers in Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. While Glasnow's struggles seemed to be merely temporary, there may be a bit more concern surrounding Yamamoto in his first big-league season.

The righty has remained excellent in the strikeout department, racking one up against 32.3% of the batters he's faced, but when the ball has come back into play, it's been troublesome. Yamamoto has now surrendered three homers in his last two starts and six earned runs altogether, a product of an extremely high Hard-hit Rate and Line-drive Rate.

The Nationals will counter with a young lefty in Gore who's been a huge surprise in 2024 after two poor big-league seasons. We've come to expect a slow start from many touted pitching prospects, but the problems with Gore appeared to be tenfold. He couldn't find the zone, he couldn't roll up grounders, and he was allowing incredibly dangerous contact on a nightly basis.

However, his Walk Rate currently stands better than the league average, as does his Expected Batting Average. While he's pitched to a pretty high Line-drive Rate and still refuses to roll up grounders, his Hard-hit Rate is low enough where it hasn't mattered. Gore has also built upon his solid 25.9% Strikeout Rate from a season ago and brought it up to 31.8% this season — roughly six points better than average.

Washington has been surprisingly competent with the stick of late, posting a 97 wRC+ in the last two weeks with a strong 9.5% Walk Rate and decent enough 22.1% Strikeout Rate. Best of all, this team's Isolated Power is nearly up at .150 as it continues to climb the ranks in MLB. It's worth noting that Lane Thomas was lost to a knee injury just a few days ago, but given his up-and-down season, that likely won't alter the outlook here all that much.

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The Dodgers aren't in the greatest spot in the world right now with so many starters on the IL, and with the way Yamamoto has pitched, it's anything but a guarantee that their staff ERA will take a step back in the right direction on Thursday.

The Nationals can hit for enough power and make enough contact to get to a pitcher who's been susceptible to barrels over the last couple of weeks, and on the flip side, there are plenty of reasons to believe in Gore here given his strong start to the season and the Dodgers' slight dip in offensive production.

I'll take a swing here and go with the home underdogs on the moneyline.

Pick: Nationals ML +160