Dodgers vs Padres Best Bets, MLB Expert Picks, Predictions (March 20)
Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts
Odds are out for the MLB Seoul Series matchup on Wednesday, March 20, and our Action Network experts have Dodgers vs Padres best bets ready.
Our MLB analysts have a trio of picks they're recommending for Dodgers vs. Padres in Korea, with two picks on the Dodgers and one on the Padres.
Continue reading for our expert predictions on Dodgers vs. Padres in the opening game of the 2024 MLB season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Best Bets | MLB Expert Picks, Predictions
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | -220 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | +180 |
Tyler Glasnow is making his debut with the Dodgers and because of injuries, I think we all forget truly how good he is. He started 21 games last year, which is actually the most of his career.
He was an incredibly interesting case because he posted a 3.55 xERA, but only a 2.75 xFIP. His strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all stayed pretty much the same from previous years, but he increased his ground ball rate over 50% for the first time since 2019, which happened to be his best season where he posted a 1.78 ERA.
The reason why his ground ball rate has gotten so high is because he’s no longer completely reliant on his fastball like he was in the beginning of his career. Glasnow in 2023 only threw his fastball 43% of the time and put much more of a reliance on his slider and curveball.
He still has an electric fastball that had a 128 Stuff+ rating last year — which was fourth best in MLB for pitchers who threw over 100 innings — but being less predictable is always a good thing.
His curveball is his best pitch, though. He only threw it about 24% of the time last year and it produced 73 of his 162 strikeouts. Additionally, it had a Stuff+ rating of 152, which was fourth-best in baseball.
Over the second half of last season, the Padres were top 10 in wOBA and wRC+, but who were their top two guys in both of those categories? Juan Soto and Gary Sanchez, who are no longer with the team.
Yu Darvish’s expected metrics were a little better than his actual ERA of 4.56 last year, but his strikeout rate has gone significantly down over the past two seasons because he’s now 37-years-old and isn’t as effective as he once was. He has eight different pitches that he can throw, but his fastball and slider are by far his best two pitches. They also happen to be two pitches that the Dodgers crushed last season.
I have the Dodgers projected at -210 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -170.
By D.J. James
The Dodgers have all of the glitz and glamour in the baseball world after signing Shohei Ohtani and multiple other marquee names this offseason in a quest for a title.
However, don’t overlook how good Darvish is in comparison. He has consistently held a sub-8% walk rate and xERA of 3.85 or lower the last few seasons. He also allows much weaker contact than Tyler Glasnow, who ranked in the 4th percentile in barrel rate last year, the 11th percentile in Hard Hit Rate, and the 15th percentile in Average Exit Velocity.
The Padres had five hitters eclipsing a 100 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the second half of last season. This did not include Fernando Tatís, Jr. or Jackson Merrill, who will be up with the team. Yes, Manny Machado is still progressing from his surgery, but the Padres have enough weapons in the lineup to offset the power from the other dugout.
Darvish is undervalued here, and if he can go past five innings, he can take some workload off of the bullpen. This lineup can hit Glasnow hard, as long as they can get the ball in the air.
The Padres can be taken to +150.
By Kenny Ducey
Tyler Glasnow is a hair underrated entering the 2024 season in my eyes. Sure, his numbers on the surface are considerably worse than they were in his stellar 2021 campaign, just before he was injured in 2022, but his whiff rate remained high at 35.4% and, in turn, his strikeout numbers were still in the elite category at 33.4%.
Glasnow did produce a higher expected ERA than we have grown accustomed to seeing, but it was a product of home runs more than anything. I’d back this trend to reverse course given he fell in love with the ground ball last season, posting the best ground ball rate of his career at 50.9% and, in turn, coming up with a splendid .218 xBA which is a ridiculous number for what you’d call a down year.
The Padres were 11th in barrel rate last year, but their lineup is noticeably weaker this season with Graham Pauley and Luis Campusano hitting toward the middle of the order, and the likes of Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts continuing to decline. Given the way they failed to get to ground ball pitchers last season, I like Glasnow’s chances.
On the other side, while Yu Darvish had some bright spots at 36 on the heels of a troublesome second half in 2022, his strikeout rate continued to decline and coupled with a higher walk rate that realty made his quality-of-contact numbers cast an even-darker cloud over a career which is on its last legs.
You simply cannot offer the most patient team in the major leagues this many walks and pitch to this many home runs and get away with it, leading me to believe L.A. will start off the Shohei Ohtani era with a bang.
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