Padres vs Dodgers Picks | MLB Odds, Bets
Getty Images. Pictured: Freddie Freeman and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet Thursday in the second game of MLB's Seoul Series in South Korea.
The Dodgers took the first game of the series, 5-2, on Wednesday morning, behind a late-inning outburst.
Thursday's game will feature the debut of Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while the Padres will turn to veteran hurler Joe Musgrove.
Here are our staff's best bets and Dodgers vs Padres picks for Thursday morning in Korea.
Dodgers vs. Padres MLB Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -139 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | +155 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | -182 |
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By Billy Ward
There’s a bit of uncertainty surrounding our first NRFI of the regular season. That’s because one-half of the starting pitchers have no major league experience – that being Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Padres starter Joe Musgrove is one of the stronger early game pitchers, though, with a 2.88 xFIP his first time through the order in 2023. With a game total of 8.5 runs and one verifiably fast-starting pitcher, we’re off to a good start on the no runs side of thing.
I plugged in the league average ratio of xERA first time through the order compared to overall xFIP for this one, which produced fair value on the NRFI of around -130. That’s a relatively comfortable value compared to the currently available odds of +102 on BetRivers and -105 on FanDuel for this prop.
While that’s enough to overcome some of the uncertainty around Yamamoto, I’m betting this one for half of my typical NRFI unit. It’s a long season, and we’ll have plenty more opportunities with a more robust data set soon.
Pick: No Runs – First Inning (+102 at BetRivers)
By D.J. James
Joe Musgrove’s 2023 season came to a halt early after logging 97 1/3 innings with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. At the point of his exit, Musgrove was one of the best pitchers in the National League, and he will face an MLB newcomer in Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yamamoto makes his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers with an upper-90s fastball and multiple off-speed wipeout pitches. There is a reason he held a sub-1.70 ERA in the Japanese league the last three seasons.
The Dodgers edged out the Padres in game one of the Seoul Series and the total went under despite L.A.'s late outburst, and this matchup looks to have the makings of a pitchers' duel.
Musgrove typically logs six-plus innings of effective ball, while Yamamoto almost hit 200 innings on the season in Japan a couple of times.
In the bullpen, Evan Phillips holds down the back-end for Los Angeles with multiple other experienced relievers in front of him in Alex Vesia, Joe Kelly, Daniel Hudson and Ryan Brasier.
San Diego also has enough in the bullpen on the back of a solid Musgrove start.
The top-half of the Padres lineup can get the job done more often than not, but a first look at Yamamoto may cause some issues a turn or two through the lineup.
The Dodgers are solid throughout, but Musgrove has locked down the Dodgers in recent years.
The under should be in play. Take it to 8 (-110).
Pick: Under 8.5 (+102) | Bet to 8 and -110
By Cody Goggin
Yoshinobu Yamamoto comes over to the Dodgers as a highly-regarded arm from Japan. The 25-year old righty could end up being one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball from the jump with his strong command and his wide array of plus pitches to choose from, including an elite curveball.
Despite lackluster results in terms of runs allowed, Yamamoto has a 29.8% strikeout rate this spring and a 2.07 FIP, which should provide optimism for his rookie season.
Joe Musgrove will be the starter for the Padres and while he has been strong in previous seasons, his spring training was rough as he returned from an injury that shortened his 2023 season. Not to take away too much from these exhibition games, but Musgrove struggled to the tune of a 13.50 ERA and 7.22 FIP in three starts this spring.
This wouldn’t be concerning typically, but Musgrove is coming off of a shoulder injury and publicly acknowledged these struggles a couple weeks ago. This is something he will likely work through as the season goes on, but I’m not going to be rushing to back him at this point in the season.
I think that Yamamoto will have a strong debut while his offense will be able to provide enough run support for the Dodgers to jump out to an early lead on Musgrove. I like taking the Dodgers at -0.5 for the first five innings.
Pick: Dodgers F5 Run Line -0.5 (-121 at BetRivers) | Bet to -125
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