Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Picks

Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Picks article feature image

Kyle Rivas/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds

Friday, August 4
9:40 p.m. ET
Dodgers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+100 / -122
Padres Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+100 / -122
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Bobby Miller and Yu Darvish have both struggled at times this year, and they'll each have a very tall task on Friday when they take on two of the hottest offenses in baseball. Might there be a reason to believe in both hurlers here, though?

Let's break it all down in our Dodgers vs. Padres preview and prediction.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday will give us yet another opportunity to watch young Bobby Miller pitch. The highly-touted prospect has had a very volatile first 11 starts in the big leagues, looking unhittable at times and struggling mightily in other outings. It's all amounted to a 4.37 ERA in 59 2/3 innings, and the month of July was once again unkind to Miller who posted a 4.64 ERA in four starts.

The sinkerballer has done a lot of good things at this level, however. He's rolling ground balls up at a 45.6% clip, and while the strikeout stuff isn't there yet a 23.8% K-rate, his advanced numbers are still firmly above average.

Miller's ability to get strikeouts and ground balls at a higher rate than the average pitcher has amounted to a 3.56 xERA. Despite having a couple of brutal outings, Miller is a relatively trustworthy guy to bet on given these traits, plus a low 7.1% barrel rate.

The Dodgers have been a menacing team at the plate over the last two weeks with a 141 wRC+, while walking in an impressive 11.6% of their plate appearances and striking out in just 19.1% of them. It's not a good idea to fade this offense at the moment.

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San Diego Padres

Yu Darvish is the man tasked with slowing down this Dodgers team, and it certainly seems hard to believe that he'll be able to do so successfully. He held a worse version of this offense to just one run over 6 2/3 innings earlier this season, but Los Angeles is hitting the ball so much better right now. On top of that, the aging right-hander has had a rocky 2023 season.

Darvish owns a 4.53 ERA and has looked like a shell of himself at times, so it's easy to overlook some of the encouraging numbers beneath the surface. After his strikeout rate declined for three straight seasons, Darvish has actually brought that number up to 26% in 2023.

He's coupled that with a lower barrel rate at just 6.9% and welcomed a 43.3% ground ball rate – his highest since 2020. Darvish has been a home run machine for the last few years, and he did just allow four in a start a couple of weeks ago, but he's made some improvements this year.

Speaking of improvements, the Padres have hit the ball a lot better over the last two weeks much like the Dodgers. They're hitting .283 with a .304 BABIP, rocking a 10% walk rate and miniscule 17.1% strikeout rate. It's no surprise they didn't sell at the deadline with the way this offense is going.

Dodgers vs. Padres Betting Pick

We have two red-hot offenses here and two pitchers who have really looked bad at times, so on the surface the move here would seem to be backing the over 8.5 runs.

However, I think both of these pitchers are still a bit underrated by the market, and because of that, I actually love the under. I've been Darvish's biggest critic over the last couple of years, but his underlying numbers continue to trend in the right direction. Both of these guys have been able to induce ground balls at a great rate, which should suppress much of the power that both of these offenses possess.

Miller and Darvish are two incredibly talented pitchers and should put on a show.

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