Guardians vs Angels Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Saturday, September 9
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Ramirez
Guardians vs Angels Odds
Lucas Giolito (4.88 ERA, 156 and 2/3 IP) will return to Los Angeles in just his second start with Cleveland, looking to better upon what was a horrific debut with his new squad. Giolito allowed nine earned runs Monday versus the Twins in a game that all but sealed the Guardians hopes at stealing a division title.
Los Angeles will hand the ball to Tyler Anderson (5.56 ERA, 128 IP), who has been in a similarly awful run of results with a 6.14 ERA over his last nine starts.
It's rare that the Guardians own a superior offensive matchup on paper, but that is likely to be the case Saturday versus the Angels heavily depleted unit. Cleveland has hit to a wRC+ of 92 over the last 30 days, with a middle of the pack K/BB ratio of 0.38. Barring any surprising absences from the lineup, the Guardians should have their top unit versus LHP.
Giolito has been decimated to an ERA of 8.53 over his last 44 and 1/3 IP. Batters have hit .292 and slugged .635 off of him in that time. His xwoba has not spiked significantly though, and he owns an average xFIP rating of 4.45 over those nine outings.
He owns a Stuff+ rating of 95, a 102 Location+ and Pitching+ mark of 101. His recent work suggests there are some flaws beyond the underlying numbers, but it still seems that we should see him trend towards more respectable results moving forwards.
Los Angeles has hit to the 29th worst wRC+ in the league over the last 30 days with a mark of just 80. Their highly depleted lineup has actually hit to improved marks over the last 14 days, but it is hard to say if their young core would continue such production over a larger sample of AB's.
Nolan Schanuel had put together a .418 OBP and .270 average in his 17 games up with the club, but he now appears likely to have landed on the IL as well in last night's contest. Shohei Ohtani could potentially play in tonight's contest as manager Phil Nevin stated Thursday he would return in a day or two.
Similar to Giolito, Tyler Anderson has been getting crushed in the season's back half. His xwoba has crawled up to .343 and his xERA sits at 5.02 entering this matchup. He has averaged an xFIP of 5.23 in nine starts since the All-Star break and an actual ERA of 6.14. He owns a Stuff+ of 91 and Location+ mark of 99 this season.
The Angels bullpen has struggled to a 4.79 ERA this season, and it has been in worse form than ever recently with a 6.84 ERA and 5.36 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Guardians vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are a number of arguments which state why the Guardians deserve to be a bigger road favorite in this matchup. Giolito has been getting lit up of late, but a larger sample of his work this season states he is superior to Anderson, and his stuff suggests he should be. The Guardians own a rare offensive advantage in this matchup and are fielding a more potent lineup particularly should Ohtani remain sidelined.
The Angels' bullpen has been a complete disaster recently and could offer a back-door option for Cleveland backers if things don't go as planned.
It is reading too much into Giolito's recent struggles to make the Angels only a slight underdog here versus a dreadful offence and Anderson. Anything better than -130 is a play for me with the Guardians.