Guardians vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target the Total in Toronto (Saturday, August 13)
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Triston McKenzie and Mitch White will get the starts as the Blue Jays host the Guardians.
- Both teams are fighting for a spot in the postseason and our analyst has found betting value in the matchup.
- D.J. James shares his best bet below.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Guardians Odds | +105 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-120/+100) |
| Time | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Triston McKenzie has been one of the more reliable fixtures in the Cleveland Guardians rotation. He will face Mitch White and the Blue Jays in Toronto on Saturday. White is a solid righty, who ranks in the 84th percentile of Hard-Hit Rate in MLB. McKenzie, however, only ranks in the 33rd percentile and will be facing the team that leads MLB in this metric. This does not bode well for him.
That said, White does not have an easy task at hand, either as Cleveland owns a 107 wRC+ off of righties in the past month. In addition, the Blue Jays have a relatively weak bullpen, meaning Cleveland will be able to push across runs as needed.
All of these signals point to plenty of runs being scored on Saturday afternoon. Toronto also has a team wRC+ of 129 off of righties in the past month, so both teams will hit.
Cleveland Guardians: Can McKenzie Quiet Blue Jays Bats?
McKenzie is a solid starter. He has a 3.16 ERA and a 3.89 xERA, so he has been a touch lucky this season. This is mainly due to how much hard contact he permits. Opponents are averaging an Exit Velocity of 90.9 mph, which ranks in the 11th percentile. Toronto is a brutal matchup for McKenzie.
George Springer is on the Injured List, but the rest of the Blue Jays are healthy. Toronto only has four hitters with a xwOBA over .320 off of righties over the past month, but they have many other batters, like Alejandro Kirk and Bo Bichette who can piece together good plate appearances. McKenzie is above average in Chase Rate and the Blue Jays rank in the top-10 in said category. Toronto will not swing at poor pitches and since the Blue Jays rank first in Average Exit Velocity, they will hit McKenzie hard.
The hang-up to hitting the total is the Guardians have the best xFIP out of the bullpen in the past month. There is a chance an arm or two may not be available, which would will hinder their success after McKenzie leaves the game. Still, Toronto needs to get to the middle relief portion of this game to add to their total.
Toronto Blue Jays: Can Pitching Staff Hold Up?
White has a 3.86 ERA and a 4.01 xERA. He does not allow much hard contact, but Cleveland thrives in working the count and finding a way to get on base. The Guardians have seven hitters with a xwOBA over .320 and a few others above .300 off of righties over the past month. This means essentially every hitter in the lineup will have a shot to get on base. They will all provide difficult plate appearances against White and the rest of the Blue Jays' pitching staff.
Now, Toronto has a 4.04 xFIP out of the ‘pen in the past month, which ranks 18th in MLB. There are weak spots, especially if White exits early. Toronto has enough arms if White makes a quality start, but Cleveland may give him a death by a million cuts in this one.
Guardians-Blue Jays Pick
The total is the best edge in this game. Toronto hammers the ball and McKenzie does not prevent hard hits. The bullpens have some weak spots in middle relief if both of these starters falter. Take this total from 8.5 (-115) and play it to 9.5 (-120). Cleveland’s team total over would also be a good bet, given how every hitter in the lineup can battle.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) | play to 9.5 (-120)
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