Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Fade Detroit’s Awful Offense (Thursday, May 26)

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Fade Detroit’s Awful Offense (Thursday, May 26) article feature image

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Miguel Cabrera.

  • The Guardians are underdogs against the Tigers' Tarik Skubal on Thursday night.
  • While Skubal gives Detroit an edge on the mound, its offense is the worst in baseball.
  • MLB betting analyst Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and makes his betting picks below.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds

Guardians Odds+120
Tigers Odds-145
Over/Under7 (-120 / +100)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a hot start to begin this season, the Cleveland Guardians are 3-7 in their last 10 games, which puts them in third place in the American League Central at 18-22.

The Detroit Tigers are having another season to forget. Detroit's offense is still last in all of baseball in runs by a wide margin entering play Thursday. The Tigers are 15-28 overall this season and sit well behind Cleveland in fourth.

The division title isn't exactly on the line here, but who will get the job done in this interdivisional matchup?

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Cleveland Needs To Find Its Offense

If the Tigers are going to win this game it's going to be on the back of starting pitcher Tarik Skubal. The young left-hander has a 2.84 xFIP this season, as well as a 28% strikeout percentage and 4% walk rate.

The Guardians offense was off to a hot start this season but has since cooled off in a big way. Cleveland now finds itself 17th in all of baseball in runs scored entering play Thursday.

The best chance for hitting for power in this lineup will come from Jose Ramirez and Owen Miller, the only two Guardians hitters with ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Skubal has allowed a .119 ISO to right-handed hitters this year, compared to just an .033 ISO against left-handed hitters.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers will face Konnor Pilkington of the Guardians here. Pilkington has appeared in four major-league games this season, and this will be his second start. He threw 3 2/3 innings in his last appearance, which was by far the most he's thrown this season.

Pilkington was recalled from the minor leagues for this start and it's possible that he's stretched out to pitch deeper into the game here. Still, I don't think we can assume that Pilkington will throw any more than five innings here.

Pilkington has been OK in the majors this season with a 4.19 xFIP, 30% strikeout percentage and 10% walk rate. His chances of having a decent start here are good considering how weak the Tigers lineup is. Only Jeimer Candelario and Willie Castro have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season.

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Guardians-Tigers Pick

I like the Guardians here.

The Tigers' best chance in this game is for Skubal to shutdown Cleveland's offense and outlast the Guardians in a low scoring game. While that's definitely on the table as Skubal is developing into an ace pitcher, the Tigers offense doesn't provide much in the way of run support and I expect Cleveland to hang around in the middle of this game.

At that point, the Guardians could have the upper hand late in the game as the Tigers had to use most of their high leverage relievers yesterday in an extra-innings win over Minnesota.

Pick: Guardians +120

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