Guardians vs Twins Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (Thursday, April 4)

Division rivals Cleveland and Minnesota will begin their first season series Thursday at Target Field.

The Twins are the betting favorite to win the AL Central at +110, but the early part of the season tells us it should be a relatively open race.

The Guardians are off to a solid 5-2 start, and will have 2023 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Tanner Bibee on the mound Thursday. The Cal-State product had a 2.98 ERA across a 142 innings last season.

Pablo Lopez will get the start for the Twins. He allowed only four hits and one earned run over seven strong innings on Opening Day, and is considered a favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +1100.

Bibee will look to bounce back from an ugly outing in Oakland, where he allowed six hits and three earned runs in just four innings of work. He allowed an xFIP of 5.82 in that matchup. His Stuff+ rating came in at 104, and his Location+ was at 94.

Bibee outplayed his expected rates by a considerable margin in 2023, allowing an xFIP of 4.22 and an xERA of 3.69. He struck out 24.1 percent of batters he faced, and allowed a hard-hit rate of 38.1%.

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Bibee allowed an OPS of just .547 with runners in scoring position last season, which was a strength that helped him outperform his expected results.

The 25-year-old righty is surely someone to be excited about for Guardians fans, but it might be best to temper expectations after a season that was an overachievement.

FanGraphs projects the Guardians to own a middle-of-the-pack offense this season. They hit to a wRC+ of 92 in 2023 and slugged only .381.  Scott Barlow, Estevian Florial and Austin Hedges were the main additions to Cleveland's player position pool.

It will likely take productive seasons from Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio for the offense to be much deeper than it was a season ago, but to this point the Guardians have looked like a scrappy side at the plate to be sure. They struck out only 18% of the time versus righties in 2023.

All indicators suggest Lopez is poised to follow up his brilliant 2023 campaign with another monster season.

He pitched to a 3.66 ERA across 194 innings of work last season and owned a 4.88 K/BB ratio. He ranked in the 95th percentile in terms of chase rate but was particularly effective at getting hitters to chase when he fell behind in the count (37%).

He was able to elevate his level in the playoffs, allowing only one earned run in 12 2/3 innings versus Toronto and Houston. While Thursday's matchup is far from a playoff game, it lines up nicely for the Twins that Lopez will get the start in their home opener.

On Opening Day, Lopez pitched to a 109 Stuff+ rating, which was a notable improvement to his 2023 mark.

The Twins have hit to a wRC+ of only 89 as a team to this point, but they should still prove to be a better-than-average unit this season, particularly once Royce Lewis returns from the IL.

The Twins bullpen was projected for 3.4 WAR prior to the start of the season, which was the ninth-highest mark in baseball.

The Guardians, who were a bottom-third side in splits versus right-handed pitching last season, provide a better-than-average matchup for Lopez. He offers a considerable edge over Bibee, and behind that lies a Twins bullpen which should once again become a strength.

The Twins lineup offers an irritating matchup for Bibee, and even without Lewis should be a scrappy bunch.

For a game at Target Field, I was surprised to see prices drop to as short as -148 to back Lopez and the Twins in this matchup after opening at -155. They have since rebounded at most sportsbooks closer to the opening number.

Pick: Twins Moneyline -150 (BetMGM, Play to -155)

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