It's a massive Saturday, so you know I've got some bangers.
Read on for my Home Run Picks Today and MLB best bets for Saturday, April 11.
Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:07 PM | |
| 3:07 PM | |
| 3:07 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
| 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:10 PM | |
| 9:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
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Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Picks
Varsho is in a great spot, and the odds are far too high.
Joe Ryan is a massive fly-ball pitcher and grades out as a great matchup for lefty power.
The ballpark is a plus for power, and Varsho is an above-average home run hitter.
I have the true odds on Varsho around +375.
Pick: Daulton Varsho Home Run
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Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Picks
I've been hammering Okamoto all season, but this is a spot where he is greatly underpriced.
Joe Ryan is a massive fly-ball pitcher and has been crushed by righty power in his career, allowing 1.5 HR/9.
The ballpark is a plus for power, and I have the true odds around +500 for Okamoto.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run
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Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Predictions
I know that Vlad hasn't been the same HR hitter over the last few seasons, but he's still been hitting the ball hard, and he gets a great spot here.
The ballpark is a plus for power, and Joe Ryan is a massive fly-ball pitcher who has allowed 1.5 HR/9 to righties in his career.
Vlad just needs someone who forces him to get the ball up in the air, and Ryan is just that type of guy.
I have the true odds on Vlad around +400.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Home Run
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White Sox vs Royals Home Run Picks
Witt gets a decent spot today, and the odds are too high.
Erick Fedde grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
The ballpark is drastically better with the fences moved in, and the weather isn't bad for hitting, with temps in the low 70s and cross-field winds.
I have the true odds on Witt around +450.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
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White Sox vs Royals Home Run Picks Today
Jensen has been absolutely fantastic this season. He has 4 bombs in 13 games.
The spot here is a good one versus Erick Fedde, who grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power.
The ballpark is now above average for offense with the fences moved in, and the weather is decent for hitting, with temps in the low 70s and cross-field winds.
I have the true odds on Jensen around +500.
Pick: Carter Jensen Home Run
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Giants vs Orioles Home Run Picks
This is by far my favorite bet of the day.
Chris Bassitt has been a gas can for lefty power for years, and he has massive splits.
The ballpark is a huge upgrade for Devers, and it has been a very hitter-friendly park for lefty bats for several years.
The weather is about average, and I have Devers at around +340.
Pick: Rafael Devers Home Run
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Rangers vs Dodgers Home Run Picks Today
We don't have a huge sample size of Emmet Sheehan in the majors, but he has allowed a massive 1.55 HR/9 to lefties and grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power.
The weather in LA is good for hitting, with temps in the mid-60s and wind blowing out at 10 MPH.
Seager has been great this season, and I have the true odds around +300.
Pick: Corey Seager Home Run
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Rangers vs Dodgers Home Run Picks Today
Burger gets a good spot against Emmet Sheehan, who grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
The weather over in LA is good for hitting, with the wind blowing out at 10 MPH.
Burger had a rough season last year, but he's been hitting the ball hard this season and has a ton of power.
I have the true odds on Burger around +400.
Pick: Jake Burger Home Run
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Astros vs Mariners Home Run Picks
Alvarez has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, and the odds are too high on him tonight.
The matchup versus Luis Castillo is a plus one for lefty power.
The ballpark is below average for HRs, but the odds more than make up for it.
I have the true odds under +300.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run
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