The Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros on April 29, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Orioles are favored by -122 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Astros vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Orioles Prediction
- Astros vs Orioles Pick: Under 9 (-115)
Our Astros vs Orioles best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9 -105o / -115u | +104 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 9 -105o / -115u | -122 |
- Astros vs Orioles moneyline: Astros +104, Orioles -122
- Astros vs Orioles over/under: 9 (-105o / -115u)
- Astros vs Orioles spread: Astros +1.5 (-205), Orioles -1.5 (+168)
Astros vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| RHP Peter Lambert (HOU) | Stat | RHP Chris Bassitt (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.27/2.93 | ERA / xERA | 6.75/6.22 |
| 1.85/2.64 | FIP / xFIP | 6.27/6.26 |
| 25.0% | K-BB% | -2.8% |
| 52.0% | GB% | 44.4% |
| .385 | BABIP | .354 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 94 | Location+ | 98 |
Astros vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
The Baltimore Orioles carry momentum into the second game of their three-game series against the Houston Astros following a hard-fought 5-3 victory on Tuesday night.
In the opener, the Orioles leaned on a strong performance from Shane Baz, who allowed just one run across 5 2/3 innings to secure his first win since joining Baltimore in December.
Offensively, the Orioles were propelled by a two-RBI performance from Adley Rutschman and a home run from Pete Alonso.
As these teams shift gears for Wednesday’s matchup, the Astros find themselves in a precarious position with an 11-19 record overall, struggling significantly on the road with a 3-11 mark. The Orioles currently sit at 14-15 overall with an even 8-8 record at home.
The pitching matchup for the second game features Peter Lambert taking the mound for Houston against Chris Bassitt for Baltimore.
Lambert enters with a 1-1 record, a 3.27 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP, while Bassitt looks to stabilize his season with a 1-2 record, 6.75 ERA, and a 2.06 WHIP.
Historical trends highlight an intriguing individual matchup, as Yordan Alvarez has enjoyed significant success against Bassitt, batting .409 with five home runs and 11 RBIs in 22 career at-bats.
However, the Orioles' bats have been consistent, led by Taylor Ward’s .313 average and the recent surge from Samuel Basallo, who has posted three home runs and six RBIs in his last ten games.
Meanwhile, Houston looks to Carlos Correa and Yordan Alvarez to jump-start their offense, though the Astros have struggled mightily in games where they surrender a home run, sporting a 6-17 record in such contests.
Astros vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
The betting line for this matchup is set at 9 runs, but the prevailing conditions strongly favor the under based on the "Unders Formula" system from Evan Abrams.
This system identifies specific regular-season games where market expectations and environmental factors converge to depress run production.
With this contest taking place in Baltimore on Wednesday, the environment is ideal for lower scoring. Current conditions show a temperature of 54 degrees and wind speeds of 10 mph, falling perfectly within the system’s requirement of 27-70 degrees and 2-13 mph winds.
Furthermore, the game fits the criteria of a Series 1-3 matchup starting before 8:00 p.m. ET, with a total in the 8 to 10 range.
Because the market often inflates totals due to public bias regarding hitter-friendly names or home run potential, the alignment of these weather variables and the game context makes the Under 9 an actionable play.
Pick: Under 9 (-115)
