The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Houston Astros on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SCHN and MLB.TV.
The Astros enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 9.
Find my Astros vs Pirates prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Astros vs Pirates Prediction
- Astros vs Pirates Pick: Under 9
My Pirates vs. Astros best bet is on both teams to stay under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Pirates Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -125o / +105u | -125 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -125o / +105u | +105 |
Astros vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
Astros vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Wednesday's Astros vs. Pirates game fits a historically profitable MLB betting system called "Public Fades Humidity = Unders."
This system leverages a frequently overlooked advantage in MLB totals betting related to weather conditions.
It specifically targets regular-season games characterized by high humidity levels between 45% and 95%, paired with moderate temperatures and neutral wind conditions.
Contrary to the common belief that high humidity leads to more offensive play, public bettors are avoiding such conditions, which are actually linked to lower scoring in specific situations.
In these scenarios, the home team has consistently maintained low scores, with their five-game over rate falling below 40%, indicating a lack of offensive momentum.
The market has made subtle adjustments as well, evidenced by the total decreasing from its initial line, while the overall percentage of bets on the over remains low, ranging from 6% to 29%.
These factors collectively highlight under-the-radar opportunities for betting on the under, where public perceptions don't align with actual scoring trends.
Astros vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
The system we're targeting boasts an all-time record of 246-149-12, good for a winning percentage of 62.3%. When it comes to this season alone, that record moves to 36-24 (60%) with an ROI of 15%.
According to Action Network's PRO Report, we've seen six sharp moves on the under.
As of writing, 82% of bets have landed on the over in this game, so we're going to fade the public and trust the weather edges at hand.
Pick: Under 9
Moneyline
We don't have a bet on either side in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
Like the moneyline, we're going to stay away from betting the run line here.
Over/Under
Our best bet for this game is on the under.
