The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros on April 12, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -174 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Mariners Prediction
- Astros vs Mariners Pick: F5 Under 4 (+100) | Play to -115
My Astros vs Mariners best bet is on the first five under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Mariners Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 7.5 -132o / 108u | +146 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 7.5 -132o / 108u | -174 |
- Astros vs Mariners spread: Astros +1.5 (-152), Mariners -1.5 (+126)
- Astros vs Mariners over/under: 7.5 (-132 / +108)
- Astros vs Mariners moneyline: Astros +146, Mariners -174
Astros vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cody Bolton (HOU) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.68 / 2.41 | ERA /xERA | 5.40 / 2.31 |
| 3.39 / 2.67 | FIP / xFIP | 2.28 / 3.12 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 23.3% | K-BB% | 22.4% |
| 40.0% | GB% | 32.6% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 107 | Location+ | 117 |
Astros vs Mariners Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros have run cold lately, dropping their last five games, including a sweep by the Rockies in the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field — against Colorado, they were outscored 23-9 in that series.
While their bats have picked it up in the first two games of this series, they've still been outscored 17-13. However, as we know, that level of run output is not typical for T-Mobile Park, which has the lowest park factor in baseball.
On top of the unfriendly hitting conditions, this streaky Astros lineup will be tasked with one of the game's most consistent starters, Logan Gilbert. He has had an unlucky start to the season, as his 5.40 ERA does not portray how well he's pitched.
Gilbert comes into this outing generating soft contact, pounding the zone, and sporting an elite CSW. Those three things point to him having a stellar outing and quieting the Astros bats this afternoon.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
On the other side of this matchup, the scoring in the first two games of this series has also been a welcome sight for the Mariners. Seattle's lineup has been cold for the majority of its first 15 games.
Even with their most recent output, they come into this series finale with the sixth-lowest wRC+ and the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors. They also hold the second-worst hard-hit rate.
It's going to take more than two games to convince that the Mariners lineup is rounding into form, especially when they have to contend with Cody Bolton, who's been very hard to hit through his first two appearances of the season.
Astros vs Mariners Picks
This is a matchup where you have to sell high on these two lineups. It starts with this game at T-Mobile Park, which will feature its usual poor offensive conditions.
That only adds to the starting pitching matchup, which features an elite starter in Logan Gilbert and a guy in Cody Bolton who's proven to be nasty in short stints.
The price on the first five total is well off and should be taken advantage of this afternoon.
Pick: F5 Under 4 (+100) | Play to -115
