The San Diego Padres host the Kansas City Royals on June 21, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Royals prevailed 6-5 in the series opener yesterday and will send stellar rookie Noah Cameron to the mound tonight against the Padres' Dylan Cease.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Royals vs Padres Prediction
- Royals vs Padres picks: Under 7.5 (-118, BetMGM)
My Royals vs Padres best bet is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Padres Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | +140 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -170 |
Royals vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Noah Cameron (KC) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 2-6 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 1.91 / 3.09 | ERA / xERA | 4.69 / 3.47 |
| 3.64 / 4.11 | FIP / xFIP | 2.95 / 3.15 |
| 0.90 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 12.3 | K-BB% | 21.7 |
| 42.7 | GB% | 37.2 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Royals vs Padres Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Great Matchup for Cameron
A quick look at Noah Cameron's stats already gives you an idea of the excellent season the rookie is having, but you wouldn't know he became the first pitcher ever to allow only one run or fewer in at least six of his first seven career games.
It has been all great starts for him, except for his June 10 outing against one of the best lineups in the majors: the Yankees.
New York pummeled Cameron for six runs in 5 2/3 innings, so imagine how those numbers would look now without that unfortunate appearance.
The lefty will face a Padres offense that has struggled to meet expectations all season long, ranking 17th in MLB with 99 wRC+.
Against southpaws, they perform significantly worse, ranking 20th with a mere 82 wRC+ and 24th in ISO with a .119 ISO.
Cameron has completed five innings in every start so far and has gone into the sixth inning five out of seven times.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Cease Should Bounce Back
The considerable gap between his xERA and his actual ERA suggests Dylan Cease is due for positive regression.
Except for two terrible starts (Dodgers, A's), Cease has been a steady performer in 2025 and should not fear the Royals, an offense that ranks near the bottom in production, at 27th, with an 84 wRC+ this season.
During his career, Cease has dominated the matchup against some of the best KC hitters. He has held Salvador Perez to a .235 average in 34 at-bats and Maikel Garcia to .182 in 11 at-bats.
The one hitter he should be careful with is Bobby Witt Jr. — although that applies to pretty much every other pitcher in MLB — since the Kansas City star has hit .313 across 16 lifetime head-to-head at-bats.
Royals vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are good matchups for both starting pitchers, and Petco Park ranks 22nd in Baseball Savant's Park Factors.
A low-score affair can be expected since both Royals and Padres have not fared well offensively, with San Diego dipping to 98 wRC+ in June and only two players (Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.) with an OPS above .700 this month.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-118, BetMGM)
