The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 22, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Dodgers vs Padres Prediction
- Dodgers vs Padres picks: Over 8
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet is Over 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
Dodgers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Blake Snell (LAD) | Stat | RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 1.80/4.29 | ERA /xERA | 5.97/3.48 |
| 3.72/4.01 | FIP / xFIP | 4.58/4.36 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 11.0% | K-BB% | 8.3% |
| 39.4% | GB% | 40.7% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 111 | Location+ | 97 |
Kenny Ducey’s Dodgers vs Padres Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
The jury is very much still out on Blake Snell this season, and his two most recent outings haven't exactly made the verdict much clearer. The righty has covered 11 scoreless innings over those two starts with just eight hits against him in total, but he's totaled five walks and struck out just three Padres in his most recent appearance.
Snell has only pitched five times, and while it's naturally hard to get a read on such a small sample, his volatility hasn't helped. He's struck out eight or more in two of those outings, but has failed to eclipse three in the others. All along the way, he's owned a brutal 11.9% walk rate, and when it's all been said and done, his strikeout rate stands at a measly 22.9%.
This is quite significant given Snell's preference towards pitching to contact in the air and his long-standing issues with limiting walks. The strikeouts have saved Snell time and time again — and excluding this year, he's owned at least a 30% strikeout rate for seven straight seasons. The Padres and their incredibly low strikeout rate aren't going to help Snell recover just yet, too, and his last start was an example of just how hard it is to retire this team on strikes.
The good news, however, is that Snell's Expected Slugging at least resides at a comfortable .383, and he's allowed just two home runs all season — which came in the same start last month. He'll now receive a park upgrade in his old stomping grounds in San Diego, and he'll also pitch to a team with middling power at best.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Strikeouts are also the name of the game for Yu Darvish, who has been a similarly-flawed pitcher in recent years. The punchouts have come down a bit this season with a declining chase rate, and while he managed to have a good half-season in 2024 around the waning strikeout totals, he's certainly not the reliable arm he once was.
Darvish's ERA is an abysmal 5.97, and while his 3.48 Expected ERA looks much better, there are certainly some reasons for the poor results. The first is that Darvish has brought his normally-low walk rate up to around the league average at 8.3%, and the other is that he's allowed a .440 slugging percentage. While it's true that his .389 xSLG is lower, that's still not a great figure — and that goes doubly for a pitcher who has started all but two of his eight games inside a pitcher's park.
The right-hander has brought his ground-ball rate up marginally over the last few years, but he still stands firmly as a fly-ball pitcher. The Dodgers are running a .185 Isolated Power in the last two weeks, and while home runs will be hard to come by in San Diego, they should be up for the task against a pitcher who's averaged 1.4 homers per nine in the last two seasons.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Padres have done slightly more damage against right-handers this season, but their numbers are at least comparable enough to trust in this team against Snell. While they didn't do much against him in Los Angeles last time they saw him, Snell's xBA stood at a lousy .250 in that outing — signaling that he still may be working his way back into form.
On top of that, the Padres continued to look impossible to retire on strikes with Snell's whiff rate dropping 12 points from the heights we saw in his previous two outings, and as I've covered above, I do think strikeouts are a significant part of Snell's path towards success in this start.
Without those, I think this Padres team — which has seen its walk rate skyrocket in the last month and is hitting a clean .261 over the last two weeks with slight gains in the power department — is going to hit. Of course, I don't necessarily love Darvish here either, and welcome the opportunity to go against the troves of folks backing a positive regression towards his xERA.
Darvish is simply minced meat against a team that can hit for power, and the fact that L.A. remains a very disciplined team with the highest walk rate in baseball over the last two weeks just makes me believe in this team more. Control has been an issue for Darvish, and that should make those extra-base hits he allows that much more painful.
Pick: Over 8 (-105) | Play to -115
Moneyline
I don't like moneyline, I see more value in game totals tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
I will not be betting on either side of the Run Line.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I like the Over for tonight's game.
