MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions | Mariners vs Guardians Betting Preview
Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Gilbert.
- The Cleveland Guardians host the Seattle Mariners on Friday for the home opener at Progressive Field.
- The starting pitching matchup is a rematch from last week as Aaron Civale battles Logan Gilbert.
- Continue reading for a preview and pick for Mariners vs. Guardians.
Mariners vs. Guardians Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
These teams have already seen a lot of each other, as this matchup marks their fifth meeting within the first two weeks of the season. The Guardians took the first series, but the Mariners are primed to get one back.
We will also be getting a rematch on the mound as Aaron Civale will again face off against Logan Gilbert. These two dueled in their first meeting, but Civale came out on top as he allowed just two hits over seven innings.
Will these pitchers dominate again? Or is one of them bound to regress?
Let’s take a closer look as we aim to uncover the best pick for the series opener between the Seattle Mariners and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
The Mariners haven’t gotten off to the best of starts as they are looking to reach the postseason again. They lost Robbie Ray to injury, and their offensive production has been sparse.
Ty France is Seattle’s only hitter off to a scorching start. However, the rest of the bats could get going if Civale regresses to the pitcher he was in 2022.
Nothing jumps off the page when you look at Civale’s metrics. He has excellent command, but that hasn’t stopped opposing hitters from making loud contact.
Last season, Civale finished in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit and barrel rates. A deeper look into his arsenal shows he doesn’t possess the weapons to get right-handed hitters out.
He will attack them with his sinker and curveball, but his sinker is likely to be clobbered — hitters had an .305 xBA against it last season. Civale will see plenty of quality righties in this matchup, many of which are good hitters due to get going.
If we’re going to talk about regression, the Guardians should be primed to pounce on Gilbert. The right-hander pitched to a 3.20 ERA while ranking in the bottom 5% in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate last season.
Those are direct indicators of regression and explain why his xERA was 4.11, and his FIP was 3.53. After dazzling against the Guardians in his first start of the year, he’s bound to get knocked around, right?
Well, that may not be the case because the Guardians haven’t shown much offensively and are in the middle of the pack in wOBA and wRC+.
Additionally, they aren’t a team that will take advantage of Gilbert’s reverse splits. Gilbert had a .276 BAA against righties last season, while lefties hit just .201 off him.
Nearly all of the Guardians’ best bats will step in from the left side of the plate. So while Gilbert is due to get hit around, this likely won’t be the matchup in which that comes to fruition.
Mariners vs. Guardians Betting Pick
It may seem like deja vu, but this matchup will have a different outcome. Both pitchers are due to regress, but only the Mariners are built to capitalize.
Gilbert, with help from his defense, should be able to wiggle in and out of trouble before he hands the game over to Seattle’s excellent bullpen.
On the other side, we should see some of the Mariners’ bats get going. France should stay hot, but expect Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez to join the party.
Back the Mariners to take this series opener.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline
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