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Mariners vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Seattle’s Bats Should Thrive in Detroit (Thursday, September 1)

Mariners vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Seattle’s Bats Should Thrive in Detroit (Thursday, September 1) article feature image
Credit:

Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle’s J.P. Crawford

  • Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the Mariners against Eduardo Rodriguez and the Tigers.
  • Both of these pitchers have been a bit lucky this season, so who has the edge on Thursday?
  • D.J. James digs in to the data and provides a best bet below.

Mariners vs. Tigers Odds

Mariners Odds -165
Tigers Odds +140
Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-120)
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Logan Gilbert and Eduardo Rodríguez have both feasted on luck this season. Rodríguez owns a 3.60 ERA and 4.30 xERA in 10 starts, though only two of those starts have taken place since he returned from injury. In those two games, he allowed just one earned run in 11 innings. Still, he allowed six walks and 10 hits, so runners were often on base.

Gilbert has had a comparable season, although he has pitched far more. He has a 3.49 ERA against a 4.27 xERA. He walks batters far less often than Rodríguez does, but also allows hard contact. His average Exit Velocity allowed is 91.3 mph, which ranks in the second percentile of MLB. His Hard Hit Percentage is 46.5%, which ranks in the fourth percentile.

Targeting either moneyline does not hold much value in this game. Detroit holds a team wRC+ of 79 against righties in August. Meanwhile, Seattle is tied for 10th in baseball with a 112 wRC+ off of southpaws. The Mariners should hit Rodríguez hard and take advantage of his free passes.

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Seattle Mariners: Matchups Favor Gilbert, Pitching Staff

Gilbert is a solid pitcher, but is still adjusting to the Majors, hence the hard-hit balls. In August, he’s had a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings, which is horrid and seems to be the end of his good fortune.

Even so, the Tigers can’t hit. Jonathan Schoop is on the Injured List and Kerry Carpenter is the only Tigers hitter with a xwOBA above .305 off of right-handed pitching. This is abysmal and hard to back as a bettor against yet another righty. No matter how poor Gilbert is pitching, his luck can come back — especially against a team of the Tigers’ caliber. Do not be shocked if Gilbert goes at least five innings and leaves some runners stranded.

The Seattle bullpen has been savvy lately and has a 3.49 xFIP. Only Penn Murfee and Matthew Festa come in above the 4.00 xFIP mark, meaning virtually every other reliever in the Mariners’ relief corps will be serviceable. This is yet another reason to avoid backing the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers: Rodríguez Needs to Limit Walks

This is Eduardo Rodríguez’s worst walk rate in years. He has not eclipsed a 10% walk rate in some time and his tendency to issue free passes will help boost the Seattle team total. The Mariners rank fourth in walk rate in August against lefties at 10.4%, which is right in line with how often Rodríguez has issued a free base this season.

Dylan Moore and Tom Murphy are on the IL for Seattle, but the Mariners have six hitters with a xwOBA above .325. This is far better than Detroit and should lead to production out of the top of the lineup. Look for Rodríguez to struggle with J.P. Crawford, Sam Haggerty and Mitch Haniger in particular.

The Detroit bullpen, however, has been decent. They have a collective 3.72 xFIP, though there are a few weak spots.

Mariners-Tigers Pick

Take the Mariners over the team total at 4 (-120) and play it to 5 (-115). Eduardo Rodríguez cannot find the strike zone and the Mariners crush left-handed pitching. Even against righties, Seattle had a higher walk rate and was about league average with their wRC+ (97). Expect them to work the count against Rodríguez and get into the Detroit bullpen early.

Pick: Seattle Mariners Over 4 (-120) | play to 5 (-115)

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