Mariners vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on the Total in the Bronx (Monday, Aug. 1)
Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.
- The Seattle Mariners travel across the country to take on the New York Yankees on Monday night.
- Both offenses have been absolutely rolling, with Aaron Judge becoming the AL MVP front-runner for the Bronx Bombers.
- Check out Mike Ianniello's full betting guide and pick for this game below.
Mariners vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
As we turn to August and the homestretch of the season, the Yankees sit atop the MLB standings with a very nice 69-34 record. They’re on pace for 108 wins and currently have an 11.5-game lead in the American League East standings.
Seattle is going to have a hard time taking down the AL West, but it holds the second Wild Card spot after a red-hot July. The Mariners went 18-6 during the last month — the best record in the American League that trailed only the Dodgers in the entire league.
These two cross-country teams will meet six times in the next 10 days, starting with a three-game series in the Bronx on Monday.
Mariners Offense on Heater
Seattle will send former first-round pick Marco Gonzales to the bump on Monday. The left-hander is 6-10 this season with a 3.66 ERA but a much worse 4.62 xERA.
The regression monster has already started to come for Gonzales, who has allowed five runs in two of his last three starts.
With just a 12.4% strikeout rate — one of the lowest in the league — his swing-and-miss stuff is almost nonexistent. His fastball averages just 88 miles per hour, and his cutter has been crushed all year.
The Mariners offense ranks 10th in the league in wRC+ and is strong from top to bottom. However, they will be without rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez, who landed on the IL after being hit by a pitch Saturday.
Yankees Leaning on Aaron Judge
Domingo German does not have much going for him. After being suspended for the end of 2019 and all of 2020, German posted a 4.58 ERA in 18 starts last season.
He started the 2022 season on the injured list before returning on July 21 to allow five runs in three innings. His last start went a little better, giving up two runs against the Mets. In the small sample size, he holds an 8.22 ERA this season.
The Yankees have become must-see TV every night thanks to one Aaron James Judge. The MVP front-runner has smacked 42 home runs already and is on pace to hit 66 home runs this season. Only Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire have ever hit more than 42 dingers by the end of July.
Judge leads all of baseball in homers, RBIs, runs, total bases and WAR.
These two lineups both rank in the top 10 in wRC+ on the season and have a great blend of stars and solid role players. Both teams are also top-five in the league in walk rate and do a great job of getting on base.
Neither Gonzales nor German inspires a ton of confidence, and both have had issues with walks and surrendering the long ball.
Fade these two pitchers here, and play over 9 at -105. I would play it to -110.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 · Play to -110)