Marlins vs Brewers Pick Today: How to Bet Sandy Alcantara vs Corbin Burnes in Same Game Parlay (Friday, September 30)
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Fans in Miami hold up strikeout signs for Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara.
- The Brewers are strong home favorites in tonight's matchup against the Marlins.
- It's a battle of aces as Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Milwaukee against NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara.
- Continue reading for a breakdown of how to bet this game using a same game parlay.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The second game of a four-game set between the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers gives us one of the best pitching matchups of the year. Future 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara will be up against defending NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.
While the starters may get all the attention, we can not forget just how crucial this game is for the Brewers. They enter this game just a half-game out of the third wild-card spot. Therefore, they'll need to not only win but hope the Phillies lose as the two will be jockeying for position over the last week of the season.
So, what's the best way to play this critical matchup? I break down how to approach this game from a Same Game Parlay standpoint below.
The Parlay (+525):
- NRFI or Under 0.5 runs in the first inning -185
- Sandy Alcantara 6 + Strikeouts -215
- Jon Berti 1+ stolen bases +215
Same Game Parlay – Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
With the total set a six for this matchup, clearly, there are not many runs expected, and we can take advantage of that quickly and early by backing the NRFI here. Not only are these two of the best pitchers in the game overall, but they are two of the best in the first inning as well.
Alcantara has been dominant in the first inning this season as through 31 starts, he holds a 1.74 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. So while the Brewers may be one of the best teams at scoring in the first inning, Alcantara is the perfect guy to counteract that, and the same can be said about his counterpart.
Burnes has somehow been better than Alcantara in the first inning this season. He has a 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP through 31 starts. However, he has an extra edge as the Marlins are tied for last in first-inning scoring this season. While it may not have the heaviest odds, this is the anchor of our parlay.
Sandy Alcantara to Record 6+ Strikeouts
The Brew Crew are a free-swinging club as they come in sporting the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors. They have also done well to hold that spot over the last month.
They have the 10th-highest strikeout rate over the last 30 days, except their rate is almost three percent higher than league average and more than one percent higher than their season average.
As for Alcantara, this leg is right in line with his listed strikeout total for this matchup, except it shaves one strikeout off for it to hit. He has reached the six strikeout mark in 51.6 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -106 that he will do so again.
While that may not seem like good line value, that is before you factor in the matchup and just how often the Brewers strike out.
Jon Berti 1+ Stolen Bases
This is where we get creative and add more juice to this parlay. Jon Berti leads the majors in stolen bases this season with 38, and this includes him missing multiple weeks due to injury. Berti is a threat to steal at any time, and in a game as tight as this one, he may need to.
Not many guys have run on Burnes this season, as there have only been nine total attempts. However, five of them have been successful, and he's given up plenty more in seasons past.
For example, Burnes famously gave up six stolen bases in a matchup against San Diego in 2021. On top of that, runners were 18 of 20 off him that season, so it seems like he's due to allow bags to be swiped, and Berti is the guy to do it.