Tuesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Marlins vs. Phillies: How to Back Zack Wheeler Against Porous Miami Offense
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler
- The Phillies are huge home favorites in tonight's matchup against the Marlins.
- Ace Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia, while he'll be opposed by Miami's Braxton Garrett.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated as of Tuesday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Marlins are set to begin their series in the “The City of Brotherly Love.” However, they may not love their first matchup of the three-game set as they will be welcomed by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season as he enters this outing with a 10-5 record and 2.59 ERA. He’s also been on a hot streak of late as he’s given up two runs or fewer in his last four starts.
Opposing Wheeler for Miami will be lefty Braxton Garrett. Garrett has been the unsung hero of a young and talented Marlins rotation. He’ll take the ball this evening, boasting a 3.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
While he has been excellent this season, this matchup is tougher than it appears.
Expect Wheeler to Silence Miami’s Bats
The Marlins have been without two key pieces in Jon Berti and Brian Anderson, for a few weeks now. Without them, they have been one of the worst offenses in the majors. Since the All-Star break, the Marlins rank 27th in batting average, and are last in wOBA and wRC+.
Those numbers will be up against Wheeler, who ranks in the top 15 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA. His elite numbers come from his fastball-slider combination.
Since Wheeler arrived in the big leagues with the New York Mets, we’ve known about his blazing fastball. However, since his velocity has ticked down a bit, he’s become much more of a pitcher than a thrower.
His walk rate has dropped each of the last three years, and his chase rate is in the top ten percent of the majors. His command has transformed into this elite pitcher who essentially dominates hitters with two pitches. He tunnels them well and keeps hitters guessing. Expect to see a lot of that early on tonight.
Phillies Righties to do Damage Against Garrett
Garrett is coming off a fantastic month of July where he had an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 0.88, and recorded 33 strikeouts in 30 innings. His first start of August was one of his best as he struck out 11 and allowed two runs over a five-plus inning of work.
However, his hot stretch may be in line to end tonight. Philly has been among the best teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. They are top five in batting average, OPS, and wOBA.
In addition, three of their best hitters have been rolling of late. Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto each have above-average xwOBAs and hard-hit rates.
Garrett has also proven to be more vulnerable against righties as he has allowed a .330 wOBA and has a 3.89 FIP against them on the road this season. Expect the Phillies to strike early as Garrett only gets better as the game progresses. In fact, his highest BAA and wOBA allowed is when he’s going through the order for the first time.
The Phillies are red-hot entering this matchup as they are winners of nine of their last 10 games. Now tonight, they have their ace going, and the heart of their order is primed to feast on a young lefty.
The Phillies are heavy favorites with Wheeler on the mound against one of the worst offenses since the break, but I’ve found a way to back them that supports each edge they have in this matchup.
Take the Phillies to cover the spread in the first five, as they are likely to get on the board in the first three innings while Wheeler put up zeroes.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-150)
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