The Boston Red Sox host the Miami Marlins on August 16, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction
- Marlins vs Red Sox picks: Under 9.5
My Marlins vs Red Sox best bet is Under 9.5 with the best odds currently on BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Red Sox Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9.5 -100o / -120u | +150 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 9.5 -100o / -120u | -181 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-9 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 5.09 / 5.29 | ERA /xERA | 3.25 / 4.34 |
| 4.50 / 4.56 | FIP / xFIP | 4.16 / 4.24 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 11.4% | K-BB% | 9.7% |
| 33.5% | GB% | 49.3% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 100 | Location+ | 104 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Evan Abrams' system targets Unders in regular-season MLB series after both teams had low-scoring performances in the previous game.
When both the home and visiting teams have scored 0–2 runs in the prior game, the following game is often priced based on regression assumptions.
However, many of these games continue to stay under the total due to momentum, fatigue, or strong pitching matchups.
Limiting to games 2+ in a series helps isolate these carryover effects and remove opening-game volatility.
Pick: Under 9.5
