Mets vs Braves Predictions Today | MLB Odds, Pick Thursday (April 11)
(Photo by Aaron Doster/Getty Images) Pictured: Jose Quintana
Mets vs. Braves Prediction
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 9.5 -115/-105 | +1.5 -129 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-165 | 9.5 -115/-105 | -1.5 +108 |
With the postponement of Wednesday’s game, Allan Winans will take the bump for the Atlanta Braves in a matinee against José Quintana and the New York Mets. Quintana has had some favorable outcomes, despite some discouraging peripherals.
Winans is yet to throw for the Braves this season, but had a cup of coffee in the majors last year and posted a 5.29 ERA over 32 1/3 innings. The 28-year-old has been solid in the minors, but getting through a big league lineup is a tall task.
That said, the Braves haven't hit lefties well in limited plate appearances this year, and New York has struggled off of righties, so runs could be at a premium.
Let's get to my Mets vs. Braves prediction.
Quintana has been a reliable starting pitcher, outside of his stint with the Chicago Cubs. This year, he has given up a fair amount of hard contact in two starts against the Reds and Brewers. He's never been much of a strikeout guy, but a 12.8% walk rate won't cut it. However, that number will surely regress, as his career walk rate has hovered around 7%. Additionally, he can typically limit hard contact. In 2023, he ranked in the 88th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate and the 87th percentile in Barrel Rate.
The Mets haven't hit righties well. Over 322 plate appearances, they have a 74 wRC+ with a .586 OPS. Last season, they ranked a tick above average with a 103 wRC+ off of righties, but only four of their active hitters held a xwOBA over .33o off of righties.
In relief, the Mets are faring well. The back-end arms, like Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley and Edwin Díaz are about as good as it gets. Assuming Quintana can get through four or five innings, he'll hand it over to some savvy veterans.
Winans doesn't have a ton of MLB experience, but has held opponents to an average exit velocity of 85.6 mph in the minors over the past two seasons. He's not going to blow anyone away with a 90-mph fastball, but his slider and changeup keep batters off balance. If he can keep the ball on the ground and get by the Mets’ heavy-hitters, he'll be fine.
The Braves have struggled against lefties this year. However, the sample size is only 106 plate appearances and they held a 131 wRC+ off of southpaws last season. Sean Murphy is on the Injured List, so Atlanta takes a step back at catcher, but outside of Jarred Kelenic, this lineup is pretty much the same.
In relief, the Braves’ staff isn't the best.
Mets vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither of these starting pitchers will rack up strikeouts, but both can limit hard contact and induce grounders. Quintana will look like himself again soon, and Winans has a nice matchup against a lineup that mostly struggles with lefties. As a result, the under should be playable to 9.
Pick: Under 9.5 | Play to 9
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