MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, April 20 | Mets vs Giants Prediction Today
Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso & Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- The Giants host the Mets on Thursday night and our expert has a play early in the game.
- Nicholas Martin expects the offenses to come out swinging and has targeted the first five innings total.
- Continue reading as Martin details his Mets vs. Giants best bet below.
Mets vs. Giants Odds
-104 / -118
-104 / -118
Japanese sensation Kodai Senga will look to continue an extremely solid start to his big league career with a win Thursday in San Francisco. Senga has a 3.38 ERA across three starts and 16 innings.
Sean Manaea will start for San Francisco. Manaea has a 4.77 ERA in 11.1 innings and was unable to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Tigers.
Similar to last season, the Mets feature a lineup that can grind pitchers down with long at-bats thanks to elite plate discipline. The results have been quite reasonable and a driving force behind New York’s 12-7 record.
The Mets have scored a 14th-best average of 4.63 runs per game this season. They have hit to an eighth-best xwOBA of .304 as a team and can hide their lack of power in several ways.
They have struck out just 17.1% of the time and are walking 12.5% of the time.
Senga has had an excellent start to his big league career, but does appear due to drop off to an extent moving forward.
His elite 30% K-rate has often hidden a concerning 43.6% hard-hit rate, and has allowed him to consistently work out of jam situations.
Even still, his 90.4% left on base rate is not going to hold, and eventually we should see his runs allowed totals rise when he finds more average luck with RISP.
San Francisco has also put together some quietly encouraging splits offensively and has bounced back nicely from a tough 2022 campaign despite its lowly 6-11 record.
It has hit to a xwOBA of .323 and owns a xSLG rate of .419.
The Giants have been particularly potent in splits versus right-handed pitching. They have hit to a wRC+ rating of 122 versus righties with a wOBA of .358.
Those splits will surely regress over a larger sample, but that still makes the Giants the second-most dangerous offense against righties by some margin.
Manaea certainly needs some run support to collect a win on Thursday. When looking at his stats, Manaea’s best days seem well into the rearview mirror.
He has 7.44 xERA and has been hard hit 44.8% of the time — although his xFIP of 4.41 is more encouraging and is a hint that his xERA will drop in a larger sample.
His QOPA of 4.02 is also well below the league average of 4.41.
Mets vs. Giants Betting Pick
Offensively, the Mets have displayed a sound process at the plate again. They have hidden a lack of power with an extremely irritating lineup and should make life tough for Manaea in this one.
Considering the matchup and how Manaea has fared over the last season and change, it’s logical to think New York finds a way to break through with some early offense.
San Francisco has hit to incredible splits versus right-handed pitching this season and could be a strong candidate to get to Senga with some hard contact in this matchup.
I like the chances both offenses can get going early in this matchup.
+100 for the game total to go over five in the first five innings is a very playable number.
Pick: Over 4.5 First 5 Innings (+100)
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