The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins on July 31, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on WPIX.
The Mets are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Marlins vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Mets Prediction
- Marlins vs Mets Pick: Jason Junk Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Our Marlins vs Mets best bet is on Jason Junk to record under 3.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Mets Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +108 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -126 |
- Marlins vs Mets moneyline: Marlins +108, Mets -126
- Marlins vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Marlins vs Mets spread: Mets -1.5 (+158), Marlins +1.5 (-192)
Marlins vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| RHP Janson Junk (MIA) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 5-9 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.89/4.05 | ERA / xERA | 4.99/3.83 |
| 4.35/4.31 | FIP / xFIP | 4.46/4.27 |
| 11.7% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 43.0% | GB% | 40.9% |
| .304 | BABIP | .313 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 110 | Location+ | 104 |
Marlins vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins head to Flushing on Friday night looking to break a rough seven-game road skid as they open a series against the New York Mets.
Miami comes into the matchup sitting at .500 on the season with a 55-55 record, though away games have proven troublesome as they carry a 21-32 mark on the road.
Despite their struggles outside of South Florida, the Marlins' offense continues to set a strong baseline, posting a .326 on-base percentage that ranks seventh overall in Major League Baseball.
New York enters the contest at 47-63 overall and 25-31 at home, looking to maintain their edge in a season series where they currently hold a slight 4-3 advantage through seven games.
The Mets have generated much of their offensive spark via the long ball, placing eighth in the National League with 129 home runs while averaging 1.2 homers per game.
On the mound, Miami hands the ball to right-hander Janson Junk, who carries a 4-6 record alongside a 4.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts.
He will duel with New York's Freddy Peralta (5-9, 4.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 113 strikeouts), a prominent trade target who could be making his final appearance in a Mets uniform ahead of the deadline.
Marlins vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
Targeting the under on Janson Junk's strikeout total presents one of the premier player prop opportunities on Friday's slate.
Action PRO models pin Junk at roughly 3.44 strikeouts against the Mets, creating a compelling 10.7% edge against the consensus market line of 3.5. Getting this prop at plus-money (+124) elevates the overall value even further, earning an A grade system rating.
From a recent performance standpoint, Junk has stayed under 3.5 punchouts in three of his past five starts. Although he did put together a six-strikeout outing in his previous start, that performance stands out as an outlier rather than his typical baseline.
Considering the line value and matchup dynamics, taking Junk to stay Under 3.5 Strikeouts offers significant return potential for bettors.
Pick: Jason Junk Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+126)
