The Baltimore Orioles host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 19, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Brewers are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Orioles Prediction
- Brewers vs Orioles Pick: Robert Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102, 0.51u | Bet to -115), Orioles ML (+114, 0.5u | Bet to +101)
My Brewers vs Orioles best bet is on Gasser to record 6+ strikeouts and Baltimore to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Brewers vs Orioles Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -155 | 8 -111o / -110u | -132 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +126 | 8 -111o / -110u | +110 |
- Brewers vs Orioles moneyline: Brewers -132, Orioles +110
- Brewers vs Orioles over/under: 8 (-111o / -110u)
- Brewers vs Orioles spread: Brewers -1.5 (+126), Orioles +1.5 (-155)
Brewers vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Robert Gasser | Stat | Trevor Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 4.30 / 4.21 | ERA / xERA | 4.22 / 3.68 |
| 4.32 / 4.31 | FIP / xFIP | 3.63 / 4.02 |
| 14.6 | K-BB% | 16 |
| 33.3 | GB% | 37.9 |
| .284 | BABIP | .299 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 95 | Location+ | 107 |
Brewers vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
Brewers vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
Robert Gasser has pitched to a 2.23 ERA over his last 19.1 innings, but that’s mostly because just one of his five barrels has left the yard during that time.
His 14.5 K-BB% is right on his season rate (14.6%), but he has only allowed 15 hard-hit batted balls (25.9%), still producing an xERA (3.98) and xFIP (4.06), much higher than his 3.10 FIP.
On the season, Gasser’s 4.30 ERA meshes pretty well with indicators ranging from a 4.12 SIERA to a 4.64 dERA. His 3.67 Bot ERA is an outlier, but a 97 Pitching+ is not. He also exceeds a 40-point wOBA and xwOBA split, favoring RHBs.
The good news for Gasser is that it’s a navigable matchup, one even offering plenty of strikeout upside. Pete Alonso (114 wRC+), Coby Mayo (208) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (201) are the only three projected Orioles above a 97 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Take away Gunnar Henderson too and nobody else exceeds a 71 wRC+ or .123 ISO against southpaws.
This projected lineup also averages a 31.6 K% vs LHP and 84 wRC+ at home.
They have been hot lately though, with four batters exceeding a 140 wRC+ over the last month overall.
Gasser has struck out LHBs 25.8% of the time and RHBs 20.8% of the time. I’m projecting him to face 21 batters with only Henderson from the left-hand side, but the first 21 in the projected Baltimore order average an even higher strikeout rate against lefties (32.1%).
I also wanted to check out Gasser’s home and away strikeout splits because Milwaukee is one of the greatest strikeout-enhancing parks in the league, but he’s struck out more batters on the road (22.7%) than at home (21.4%).
Camden will generally boost strikeouts around 1% for RHBs. An early forecast suggests 3% suppression, but then scheduled umpire Alex MacKay enhances strikeouts almost 8%. This is a nice spot for Gasser.
When the Orioles do make contact, they’ll be hitting into a projected defense running 24 FRV above average, one of the better units in the league.
BARTOLO ranks the Brewers the seventh-best bullpen in the league, but over the last 30 days, they merely have the 19th-best estimators (4.22 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 3.89 SIERA).
Trevor Rogers still has a 4.22 season ERA, but has been pitching to a 3.03 SIERA and .268 xwOBA over the last month.
His 16 K-BB% is a bit better than Gasser on the season and up to 24.5% since the All-Star break.
Rogers’ 3.23 Bot ERA is one of the best marks on the board. The only confirmed pitcher with a lower number is Tarik Skubal. His worst estimator (4.02 xFIP) is one-tenth of a run better than Gasser’s best.
The projected Milwaukee lineup averages a 102 wRC+ on the road and 105 wRC+ against LHP, but with three batters (Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn and Gary Sanchez) above 125 and four batters below 80.
These Brewers have been smoking the ball lately with six projected starters above a 135 wRC+ over the last month.
The Baltimore defense projected to be behind Rogers is about average (-1 FRV).
BARTOLO ranks the O’s pen eighth, right behind the Brew Crew, but their last 30-day estimators (3.09 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA) have been a half-run better and rank fifth-best in the league.
I have Rogers rated about half a run better than Gasser, which Milwaukee gains back with offense and defense. With bullpens and baserunning about a wash, I make this game even before a small home-field bump for the Orioles.
Two plays here that might seem conflicting, but don’t need to correlate.
Gasser should be able to miss bats here. I have his upside around seven with his prop (5.5 -102) a bit low.
However, I also think the Orioles are underpriced at virtually any plus-money price.
Picks: Robert Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102, 0.51u | Bet to -115), Orioles ML (+114, 0.5u | Bet to +101)
