The Milwaukee Brewers (88-55) and Cincinnati Reds (68-74) meet tonight, with the game set to start at 12:10 p.m. EDT at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game will be broadcast live on CINR and can be traded on Kalshi.
The Brewers are favored by -1.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 8.5. The Brewers are the preferred trading option, while the Reds will be looking to pull off an upset.
Let's get into my Brewers vs. Reds predictions and picks.
Brewers vs. Reds Predictions, Odds
Brewers vs. Reds Pick
Brewers vs. Reds Pick: Kyle Harrison Over 2.5 Earned Runs (99 cents, Kalshi)
Brewers vs. Reds Analysis, Prediction
I'll fade Brewers starter Kyle Harrison against the Reds.
It's been a real renaissance for Harrison, who came to Milwaukee in a buy-low move from the Red Sox. He had a pristine 1.57 ERA over his first 10 starts, but just 12 starts later, his ERA sits at 3.45.
So, what's been the main problem for Harrison? One is that he just hasn't been quite as sharp since returning from injury.
The other is pitching on the road — and that's why I want over his 2.5 earned run prop in Cincinnati. Harrison has made 22 starts this year — 11 at home and 11 on the road. His ERA on the road is a brutal 5.94 with a 5.99 FIP and 4.29 xFIP.
The FIP isn't fond of Harrison on the road due to his insane 2.70 HR/9, a number boosted by two tough outings: one in Vegas against the A's and his last outing against the Cubs.
A few key factors led to my pick of Harrison giving up at least three earned runs. He's pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. People don't jokingly call it the "Great American Small Park" for nothing. And he gave up 3+ runs in four of his past five road starts.
When a sample is 11 starts, it's less of a small-sample issue and more of a trend, and I'll look to capitalize on Harrison's unsavory trend.
Give me the plus money on Harrison's road woes to continue.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Trade: Kyle Harrison Over 2.5 Earned Runs (99 cents, Kalshi)
