The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 23, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Brewers vs Padres Prediction
- Brewers vs Padres pick: Under 8.5
Our Brewers vs Padres best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Padres Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -105 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -115 |
Brewers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Bruce Zimmermann (MIL – Season debut) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| — | W-L | 5-7 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| — | ERA /xERA | 3.94/5.63 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 4.98/5.56 |
| — | WHIP | 1.36 |
| — | K-BB% | 4.4% |
| — | GB% | 39.6% |
| — | Stuff+ | 96 |
| — | Location+ | 101 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
San Diego took Game 1 in extra innings, edging Milwaukee 5-4. Freddy Fermin delivered the walk-off hit in the 11th, sending the Padres to their fourth playoff berth in six years. The Brewers (95-62), who already clinched the NL Central, are now aiming for the No. 1 seed in the National League.
On the mound, San Diego gives the ball to Randy Vásquez (5-7, 3.94 ERA), who has held the Brewers scoreless over 9 2/3 innings across two career starts. He’ll be opposed by Bruce Zimmermann, just called up from Triple-A Nashville, who gets the spot start for Milwaukee.
This matchup sets up as a strong fit for the Silent Sharp Unders system, a strategy from Evan Abrams that zeroes in on regular-season games where both teams are playing well, yet the market has quietly leaned under. Despite the Brewers’ championship pedigree and the Padres’ recent surge, the total sits in a common scoring range (8.5) and hasn’t inflated despite public attention on both clubs’ playoff implications.
The underlying signals—pitching matchups, pace, and market movement—point toward value on a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, bet365)
Brewers vs Padres Betting Trends
